Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will host the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
It will be the first time the two teams have played since hot mics picked up Rodgers screaming that he owned the Bears during a game earlier this season.
And he wasn't wrong. He owns the Bears.
Since 2005, Rodgers has thrown for about 239 yards with over two touchdowns and just 0.38 interceptions per game versus Chicago.
Those are Rodgers' best stats against a single team.
The Packers are also mired in a slugfest for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
With these factors in mind, Rodgers' player props have ballooned for this game. In fact, at PointsBet, Rodgers' passing yards prop is the most popular player prop of the weekend.
Below is a list of his player props for Sunday Night Football. The sportsbook offering the best value is in parentheses.
Aaron Rodgers Most Valuable Passing Player Props
- Passing yards over: 253.5, -115 (BetMGM)
- Passing yards under: 260.5, -114 (FanDuel)
- Passing touchdowns over: 2.5, +160 (DraftKings)
- Passing touchdowns under: 2.5, -200 (FanDuel, BetMGM)
- Pass attempts over: 32.5, -115 (PointsBet)
- Pass attempts under: 32.5, -110 (BetMGM)
- Pass completions over: 22.5, -120 (BetMGM)
- Pass completions under: 22.5, -110 (BetMGM)
As aforementioned, Rodgers' over 253.5 passing yards is the most popular player prop of the weekend.
In fact, The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner thinks the total on Rodgers' passing yard player prop should be more like 263.5.
That means BetMGM's line gives you a roughly 4% edge.
Rodgers has thrown for more than 253.5 yards in seven of his 11 games this season, which means the implied odds are roughly -175.
Overall, there's heavy value on his passing yards prop.
Beyond that, there may be value on his passing completion and attempt props, too.
Koerner projects that Rodgers will complete 24 passes and make about 35.5 attempts.
That's well above the current market numbers.
Rodgers has completed 23 or more passes in six of his 11 games this season, which implies odds of roughly -125.
Meanwhile, Rodgers has thrown 33 or more passes in eight of his 11 games this season for implied odds of about -265.
