The second of Sunday's NFL Conference Championship games is arguably the most exciting as we look for Bengals vs. Chiefs player props at Arrowhead Stadium.
We're talking about two of the premier offenses in the NFL, with some of the best playmakers in the game. Let's take a look at three of the best prop bets for the AFC Championship Game, with one for Cincinnati and two for Kansas City.
Samaje Perine
Over 2.5 Receptions (+135, BetMGM)
The Bengals offense is stacked with incredible talent like Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon, so I didn't expect my best Cincinnati prop to feature Samaje Perine, but here we are.
Perine been in the league since 2017 and has just 1,592 rushing yards in that time. However, we're not worried about his ability as a rusher and are instead focusing on what he can offer as a pass-catcher.
In the regular season, no team allowed more receptions and only three teams allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Chiefs. We can expect Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to be well aware of those stats.
Perine's receptions line sits at 2.5, a number he doubled last week against the Bills. It's also a total he's surpassed in five of his past nine games, including the last meeting between these two teams.
At +135, it looks like the best play of the game.
Isiah Pacheco
Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
I'm smashing over 48.5 on Isiah Pacheco's rushing yard total, a line that looks laughably low.
Pacheco might not have draft pedigree, but he looks to be improving weekly and has been very important for the Chiefs down the stretch.
His rushing yards line of 48.5 is a total he's exceeded in nine of his past 10 games, including when these teams met in December. Pacheco is the hot hand and has had at least 12 carries in eight of his past 10 games.
Having averaged 4.9 yards per carry in the regular season, and 7.9 last week against the Jaguars, it seems logical we'll see Pacheco have a big role, especially with Patrick Mahomes' injury.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 48.5 Rushing Yards |
Patrick Mahomes
Under 285.5 Passing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Mahomes' injury is the key narrative surrounding this game. He sustained a high ankle sprain against the Jaguars and struggled when he came back into the game. He was barely able to plant his injured foot and was hobbling, if not hopping, across the field.
If this were the regular season, we'd likely see Mahomes sidelined — but this is the playoffs so he's gutting it out. With this injury, it's hard to see him playing at his usual elite standard, especially against the Bengals' pass rush.
If Mahomes was fit, I'd be hammering the over, but — even though the injury is baked into the line — I have to take the under here.
Mahomes is more than capable of hitting this number, especially if the Chiefs are losing and the game script dictates more passing, but given that he's hit this total in just one of his past four games and is carrying a serious injury, I'd recommend taking under 285.5 passing yards.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 285.5 Passing Yards |
