A.J. Brown Super Bowl Props
The fact that we're making picks on A.J. Brown props might be why the Philadelphia Eagles are playing in the Super Bowl. He has changed the Eagles' offense in a huge way, helping take Jalen Hurts to the next level.
Brown set a single-season franchise record with 1,496 receiving yards, which was also fourth-best in the NFL. His 11 touchdown catches were tied for third in the league, while his 88 receptions were the 13th-most.
However, while he utterly dominated the regular season, the Pro Bowler has been a non-factor in the playoffs, totaling just seven catches for a measly 50 yards.
Don’t be fooled, though. Brown should be plenty busy come kickoff, and trends point toward him having a vintage performance against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let’s look at which Brown props are worth considering for Super Bowl LVII.
You can forgive the Chiefs if they’re having nightmares about Brown. After all, he was a thorn in their side as a member of the TennesseeTitans, hauling in 14 passes for 198 yards and one score in three games.
Brown was especially lights out the last time he faced the Chiefs, torching them a year ago to the tune of eight catches for 133 yards and a touchdown.
Those numbers came with Ryan Tannehill under center. Just imagine what he might do with Jalen Hurts throwing him the ball, which is like upgrading from a Ford to a Ferrari.
Brown has been a touchdown machine all year, so it should come as no surprise that he’s one of the most popular picks for an anytime touchdown. He repeatedly found the end zone against some of the league’s top defenses during the regular season.
At the same time, Kansas City gave up the most receiving TDs in the league (33), which makes a Brown anytime TD at +130 particularly juicy.
Meanwhile, the line for his receiving yards has held firm at 70.5, and Brown seems particularly well suited to cross that threshold. He exceeded that mark in nine games this season, including five of the team’s last six prior to the playoffs.
Brown should be relatively busy on Sunday, which is why the over on 4.5 catches is a popular bet. He averaged 5.17 catches per game during the regular season, catching at least five passes 10 times.
However, our prop projections give the under an 11.0% edge, which isn’t an insignificant amount.
Those of you who have bookmarked that page know how profitable it's been all year long. Combine that with a ton of juice on the over (-160), and this may very well be a stay away.
Finally, while it’s a prop I consider unpredictable and volatile, the books have set the line on Brown’s longest reception between 25.5 to 26.5 yards. He blew past that number in 12 games, including seven of eight and six straight to close out the regular season.
Betting Picks
Tune out all the noise about Brown’s disappearing act thus far in the playoffs. The Eagles blew the Giants and 49ers out of the water on their way to a Super Bowl berth, basically running out the clock in both second halves.
Philadelphia boasts an elite defense, but does anyone really expect it to keep Patrick Mahomes and company off the scoreboard? This game has all the makings of a shootout, which is why I’m bullish on Brown.
While I’m leaning toward sprinkling some on several of his props, I’m definitely putting multiple units on him exceeding 70.5 receiving yards, as I see multiple paths to him getting there.
He averaged 17.0 yards per catch in the regular season, which was 14th in the league. He can reach that mark on relatively few catches.
But what really excites me about this bet is Brown’s prowess with the ball in his hands.
He finished the regular season ranked second in yards after the catch among wideouts (548). Meanwhile, Kansas City surrendered the fifth-most YAC on the year (2,264).
Brown was as dominant as any wide receiver toward the end of the regular season, and I highly suspect we’ll see that version of the Pro Bowler come Sunday.
Pick: A.J. Brown Over 70.5 Rec Yards (-110) | Bet to 72.5 |
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