Alexander Mattison
Longest Rush Under 13.5 Yards (-110)
Alexander Mattison has 219 rush attempts since 2021, and only seven have gone for 14 or more yards. Only two have gone for 20 or more. He's very much a short-yardage grinder.
Mattison is in a tough spot tonight against the Eagles in what should be a trailing game script for the Vikings, who are dealing with injuries on the offensive line.
Center Garrett Bradberry is already out. He's a much better run blocker, having allowed the third-most pressures in the NFL last season among centers. Last season, when Bradberry was on the field, the Vikings averaged 4.5 yards per carry. When he was off the field, it was 3.7.
Left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable, as well, and his absence would be a massive blow, as well. The Vikings averaged 1.6 fewer yards per carry last season when he was off the field.
Mattison only averaged 0.6 yards before contact last week, and we could see the Vikings use him in the passing game as an extension of the run game. We also could see RB Ty Chandler mix in a bit more to potentially get a spark.
I'm projecting Mattison's median for longest rush closer to 11.5 yards, and every yard in this market is massive. There's a 69% chance he stays under 13.5 for his longest rush and a 61% chance he stays under 12.5.
A.J. Brown
Under 5.5 Receptions (-110)
Brown typically thrives against man coverage, ranking fifth in yards per route run against man last season. He ranked 28th against zone, though.
New Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores typically uses heavy man coverage, but Minnesota played zone at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL in Week 1. That sets up better for TE Dallas Goedert, who is expected to get the squeaky wheel treatment after going without a catch in Week 1.
Plus, Brown was a bit lucky to have a 78% catch rate last week with a high Average Depth of Target of 18.6.
Also, RB D'Andre Swift should get more run tonight with Kenneth Gainwell out. He may see more targets as a result, potentially at the expense of players like Brown.
I'm projecting this closer to -150, and I would bet Brown to go under 5.5 receptions up to -135.
