It's critical that we don't view season-long player props through a fantasy football lens.
Allen Robinson is the perfect example of why.
Do I think he has a ton of potential for the 2020 season? Absolutely: He's the WR10 in my initial fantasy projections. However, I have him projected for 80 receptions and 1,010 receiving yards, so there's quite a bit of value on the unders of his season-long reception and receiving yard props.
Koerner's Allen Robinson Prop Picks for 2020
- Under 92.5 Receptions [Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
- Under 1,180.5 Receiving Yards [Bet now at PointsBet.]
In addition to the discrepancies between my raw projections and these two lines, let's run through a few key reasons that support taking the under on Robinson's receiving props.
Odds as of March 24 and via PointsBet. Get up to $25 FREE and $250 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Played In All 16 games In 2019
Season-long props come down to games played, and the lines often assume a player will play the entire season. But when it comes to wide receivers of Robinson’s caliber, we should assume they'll miss 1.0 game per season. That shouldn't be a blanket assumption for all WRs, but it is a reasonable baseline for how many games we can expect starting WRs to play: The median games played for the top 100 WRs in targets last season was 15.
Playing all 16 games in 2019 played a large part in Robinson's final tally of 98 receptions and 1,147 receiving yards.
The Bears Became Very Thin at WR/TE In-Season
Robinson’s target share climbed in-season due to the multitude of injuries to Chicago pass-catchers.
Taylor Gabriel, Javon Wims, Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen all missed significant time throughout the 2019 season. It forced players like Cordarrelle Patterson, Riley Ridley and Jesper Horsted to have significant roles down the stretch. And all this led to Robinson seeing a higher target share than we likely would have seen if the Bears had more average injury luck at these positions.
Anthony Miller ended up benefiting from these injuries toward the end of the year, too, but he began the season hobbled by an ankle injury that was also a factor in his slow start.
With Miller healthy heading into 2020 and the addition of Jimmy Graham at TE, the Bears should be able to spread the ball around more, lowering Robinson's expected target share.
Nick Foles at QB
This is not meant to be an additional reason why I like the unders on these two receiving props, but is worth addressing.
Foles potentially replacing Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback would give this offense more consistency, but that isn't saying much: Foles has been very inconsistent throughout his career. His highs include a 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013 and a Super Bowl MVP performance for the Eagles, but his lows include the 2015 season with the Rams and losing his job outright to Gardner Minshew in Jacksonville last season.
It's difficult to project which Foles we will see this season, but it’s the built-in uncertainty that makes me hesitant to project Robinson to outpace last year's numbers.
My Picks
I like the idea of doubling down on the under 92.5 receptions and under 1,180.5 receiving yards for Robinson. We're likely to go either 0-2 or 2-0 — my money is on the latter.
