The public is riding exclusively with Alvin Kamara tonight for Monday Night Football's Ravens vs. Saints.
With Andy Dalton at helm for the Saints, bettors are banking on another Kamara-heavy week, especially against the Ravens' ninth-worst rush defense.
Earlier today, we identified the most valuable props for MNF, too, none of which involve Kamara.
In fact, our premier data analytics guru Nick Giffen assigns no value to the retail bettors' favorite prop bets tonight — in fact, he suggests riding the under on one of them.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Ravens vs. Saints Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Alvin Kamara to score the first touchdown of the game (+600)
- Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown anytime (-120)
- Alvin Kamara to record over 40.5 receiving yards (-120)
*Odds and data are according to BetMGM as of Monday afternoon.
There isn't an edge at all on Kamara's touchdown props — whether anytime or first scorer.
Kamara's fair value line to score the first touchdown is +733. At MGM's price of +600, that means you're losing 2.29% of value by riding with this line.
And Kamara's fair value to score a touchdown anytime is -110. This one seems more reasonable on the eye test, but the difference in value is a very similar premium of 2.2%.
Meanwhile, our models indicate that Kamara is expected to put up 36.9 yards through the air tonight, with a 34 yard median projection. So, the value here is to actually take the under, which has a best market price of u41.5 (-115) at FanDuel.
