The importance of experience in the Super Bowl is a highly debated topic. In the particular cases of head coaches and quarterbacks, the question becomes amplified.
When it comes to this year's Super Bowl, we have an interesting matchup between second-year head coach Nick Sirianni of the Eagles and veteran Andy Reid of the Chiefs.
Sirianni will be making his first appearance in the Super Bowl as a head coach while Reid will be making his fourth.
The Chiefs head coach is 1-2 in the Super Bowl. When he was coaching the Eagles, Reid lost to the Patriots in the 2004-05 season. He defeated the 49ers with the Chiefs in the 2019-20 season and fell to the Buccaneers and Tom Brady the following season.
Unfortunately, for those looking to gain an edge in evaluating this matchup based on coaching experience, there hasn't been much of an impact historically on outcomes.
Per Action Network's Director of Research, Evan Abrams, coaches who have "more" experience (1+ more SB appearances than the opposing coach) are a near even 18-17 straight up — with a 2-plus Super Bowl experience gap, that record dips to 10-14.
Against the spread, the 1+ experience group has generated a 16-19 record, while 2+ coaches are just 8-15-1. You could even make the argument that "experience" overvalues the veteran coach in the market.
| Super Bowl Experience Gap | SU | ATS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 18-17 | 16-19 |
| 2 or more | 10-14 | 8-15-1 |
As a first-time Super Bowl head coach, Reid covered the spread against the Patriots, but failed to win straight up. Against the Niners, he won and covered the number, and against the Buccaneers he lost outright and did not cover.
The Eagles are currently consensus 1.5-point favorites against the spread and around -120 on the moneyline.
Kansas City is a 1.5-point dog with an approximate +105 price on the moneyline.
The total is set at 50.5, with slight juice to the under.
