Betting Odds: Arizona Hotshots at Orlando Apollos
- Spread: Apollos -10
- Over/Under: 44
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV: NFL Network
Betting market: The Apollos opened as 9-point favorites and have moved up to -10 at some books across the industry. The over/under has also increased since opening, as the game total opened at 43.5 points but now sits at 44.
Week 5 Takeaways
Arizona's 29-25 Loss to San Antonio
The Hotshots turned in a season-worst performance while the Commanders played their most complete game. And yet, Arizona lost by just four points after out-scoring San Antonio 25-3 in the second half.
Still, two of John Wolford's three interceptions were certainly his fault, and the run game never managed to get on track.
Arizona has lost three consecutive games and doesn't resemble the unit that was largely considered the AAF's best team from the preseason through Week 2.
Orlando's 31-14 Win Over Birmingham
The Apollos easily out-classed Birmingham in a battle between the league's best offense and best defense.
Garrett Gilbert has been the AAF's best quarterback throughout the season while De'Veon Smith and D'Ernest Johnson helped Orlando rack up 182 rushing yards on just 29 carries (6.3 yards per rush).
The Apollos' secondary deserves to be considered alongside the Iron's as the league's best unit.
Which team is healthier? Arizona
The Hotshots are expected to welcome back starting wide receiver Richard Mullaney (knee) while offensive lineman Josh Allen, defensive back Dexter McDougle and defensive lineman were all at least able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday.
Orlando is also fairly healthy, but cornerback LaDarius Gunter (head), defensive end Anthony Moten (lower leg), outside linebacker Earl Okine (lower back) and defensive tackle Leon Orr (illness) weren't able to suit up for their first practice of the week. Linebacker Terrance Parks (neck) and corner Marquez White (hip) were limited.
Key matchup: Rashad Ross vs. Orlando CBs
The Apollos have continued to stifle opposing passing attacks thanks to their stupid-deep group of cornerbacks.
- Keith Reaser: Pro Football Focus' No. 1 CB
- Cody Riggs: No. 2
- LaDarius Gunter: No. 10
- Deji Olatoye: No. 11
Orland is one of three defenses allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game and rank second in yards allowed per attempt (6.15).
The Apollos face their toughest test yet in the form of Ross, who has caught 24-of-33 targets for 401 yards and six ([) touchdowns.
Ross has at least five targets in every game. Arizona's best player needs to ball out for the Hotshots to have a shot at knocking off the league's last remaining unbeaten team.
DFS edge: Cheap Arizona players
I've been taking the sum of each skill position player's carries and targets divided by their FanBall salary in an effort to find players who could be undervalued based on their workload.
Arizona boasts the No. 2 receiver and running back in Richard Mullaney and Jhurell Pressley in this opportunity/salary metric, while receiver Freddie Martino is the week's only player with a sub-$4,000 salary who played at least 80% of their offense's snaps in Week 5.
Both wide receivers are cost-saving options who boast fairly modest floor/ceiling combinations, but Pressley is my favorite play of the week in any format considering his salary has dropped by a week-high $1,600 despite playing 56% of Arizona's snaps last week.
Bet to watch: Orlando -10
I consider this the week's best line, so consider emptying your bank roll on one of the other games.
Still, the Apollos have proven to be in a different class than their opponents and I'm inclined to ride that wave until proven otherwise — especially against a reeling Arizona team.
