Betting Odds: Arizona Hotshots at San Antonio Commanders
- Spread: Commanders -1.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: NFL Network
Betting market: The Commanders opened as 1-point favorites at home, but they've since moved up to -1.5 across the industry.
The game total has held steady since open.
Week 7 Takeaways
Arizona's 32-15 Win Over San Diego
John Wolford has regained some of his early-season moxie over the Hotshots’ two-game winning streak, most recently completing 15-of-19 (79%) passes for 212 yards (11.2 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns against San Diego’s league-best pass rush.
Jhurell Pressley (61% snaps in Week 7) joins Trent Richardson (84%) and Zac Stacy (75%) as the league's only true featured backs, while Rashad Ross remains the team's top pass-game target even though nobody on the Hotshots had even five targets last week.
San Antonio's 19-15 Win Over Salt Lake
The Commanders continued to flex their muscles at home with a crucial victory over Salt Lake to all but secure a spot in the playoffs. They got help from a plethora of running backs and receivers, as an astonishing eight players registered at least one carry and 10 players caught a pass.
Arizona Hotshots-San Antonio Commanders Aaf Betting Guide: Ride John Wolford's or Logan Woodside's Recent Success? has played the best football of his short AAF career for the better part of the past month, but he was forced out of action early due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. The good news is he's expected to start Sunday.
Which team is healthier? Arizona
Ross (shoulder) and Pressley (wrist) were limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Both have been dealing with these injuries for several weeks. Still, Pressley was one of only three running backs in Week 7 to play at least 60% of their offense's snaps while Ross (58% snaps) played behind Richard Mullaney (88%), Marquis Bundy (60%) and Freddie Martino (63%).
San Antonio is banged up on both sides of the ball.
No. 1 receiver MeKale McKay (ankle) and starting safety Derron Smith (ankle) haven't practiced all week. McKay's injury appeared to limit him in Week 7, as he played on just 45% of the Commanders' offensive snaps. And while Woodside (non-throwing shoulder) wasn't able to finish last week's game, he wasn't listed on the injury report and is fully expected to start on Sunday night.
Key matchup: John Wolford vs. San Antonio's Pass Rush
The Hotshots have made a living of utilizing run-pass-options to get the ball to their playmakers (namely Ross) in space:
The Commanders boast the league's worst and second-worst defense in yards allowed per rush and pass attempt, respectively. Still, they've maintained an above-average unit thanks to Pro Football Focus' No. 2 pass rush that has helped consistently force negative plays and turnovers.
Wolford has posted two of three best games in terms of QB rating in the last two weeks. His ability to continue to play at a high level and get the ball out quickly will go a long way toward getting the Hotshots a W.
DFS edge: Greg Ward Jr. is this week's free square
Ward is just $3,200 despite leading all Commanders wide receivers in snaps last week. The former collegiate quarterback offers true versatility and is one of the league's only receivers with passing and rushing touchdowns in their potential range of outcomes. Ward also has plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunity as he's tied for third in the AAF with nine red-zone targets.
There's little doubt that Ward is #good at football once the ball in his hands.
Greg Ward 🔥🔥🔥
Have also been impressed by how polished he's been as a WR since Week 1pic.twitter.com/AVc767XaeV
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 17, 2019
Bet to watch: Hotshots +1.5
San Antonio defeated Arizona 29-25 back in Week 5, but the victory was surprisingly hard to come by after the Hotshots built a 26-0 halftime advantage.
I don't anticipate Arizona playing its worst half of the season against San Antonio (again).
Wolford and Co. seem to have regained some of their early-season explosiveness thanks to the return of Mullaney and emergence of Bundy, while the Commanders are far from 100% at both quarterback and receiver.
