It is halftime of Super Bowl 52, Justin Timberlake is on stage. The last time we saw JT perform on Super Sunday, the phrase "wardrobe malfunction" was born. While most see Super Bowl halftime as a chance to hit the head, grab another beer, or watch the entertainment, it also gives sharp bettors one more opportunity to get down on the big game.
When the former boy-band member hits the stage for the halftime show, bookmakers will post second half lines. These lines are for the outcome of the second half only, not the full game. At the Action Network, we are a one-stop shop for all your Super Bowl needs: simulations, matchup analysis, prop bets and more. Finally, here is a profitable 2nd half betting strategy to know for Super Bowl 52.
If this were a regular season game the most effective strategies are:
- Take large second half underdogs (7 or more points)
- Take teams that are winning big at halftime (17 or more points)
- Fade big pre-game favorites (10 or more points) that are losing at halftime
Combined, these three regular season strategies have gone 489-365-41 (57.3%) ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, these contrarian strategies aren’t as effective in the postseason, going 22-28 (44.0%) ATS.
All hope is not lost. If we adjust our strategies, we can find a profitable angle. The best plan of attack for 2nd half playoff lines is to bet full-game favorites that are tied or trailing at the half. Unlike in the regular season, motivation is high in postseason games and teams that reach the playoffs tend to be good at making in-game adjustments.
Betting full-game favorites that are tied or losing at halftime has gone 35-24-3 (59.3%) ATS on second half lines. It is a small sample but given the data we have it is the optimal strategy.
At the time of publication, New England is a 4.5-point favorite. If the Pats are tied or trailing the Eagles at the half, there is value betting on Brady and Belichick in the second half.
In last year’s Super Bowl, the Patriots (full-game favorites) trailed the Falcons 21-3 at the half. New England was a 4.5-point favorite on the 2nd half line and I think we all remember how that game turned out.
Photo via David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
