Falcons vs Titans Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 35 -110o / -110u | -145 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 35 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Here's everything you need to know about the latest Falcons vs. Titans odds with an expert pick and prediction for this Week 8 matchup.
The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. At bet365, the over/under is 35 total points scored. The Falcons are -140 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Titans are +120 underdogs.
Now, let's make our Falcons vs. Titans pick.
Falcons vs. Titans
Matchup Analysis
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel said to the media during the week that both Malik Willis and Will Levis would see time in the game. Levis, a second-round rookie out of Kentucky, is expected to be the starter. Given Vrabel's past usage of Willis as a player, it's not clear what his role would be in this offense on Sunday.
It's also true that Levis entered the season as the third-string quarterback and couldn't win the backup job in the preseason. Levis' lack of poise was notable in the preseason and makes the Titans quite difficult to accurately price in this game on Sunday. And you have to wonder where the locker room is at after they traded Pro Bowl safety Kevin Byard to Philadelphia this week.
We've seen more than enough from Willis to know he's not even really a backup QB in the NFL. Vrabel had so little faith in Willis that the team signed Joshua Dobbs off the street and started him in a do-or-die divisional game against the Jaguars in Week 18 last season.
There were 63 quarterbacks with at least 50 plays registered last year. Willis ranked 59th with a -0.22 EPA + CPOE composite. The only quarterbacks worse were Anthony Brown, Trace McSorley, Bryce Perkins and Trey Lance (Lance played almost all of his snaps in a heavy rainstorm).
Levis only really has preseason data to go from, and it's not ideal. He finished 9-of-14 but had two turnover-worthy plays and threw an interception. Levis was pressured on eight of his 19 dropbacks in that preseason game and took four sacks. Given what we know about how predictive pressure-to-sack ratio is, I suspect Levis will have major issues with sacks given his offensive line situation.
The Falcons defense also continues to take steps forward as a unit this season. They rank sixth in rushing success rate allowed and first in EPA per rush in 2023. The pass rush has moved up from the worst in the NFL in 2022 to a league-average unit this year. We've seen Vrabel in these shorthanded underdog roles before. He wants to run the ball and slow the game to a crawl.
He'll be leaning on Derrick Henry, but Henry's efficiency numbers are way down this year and the Titans offensive line can't lean on a strong Atlanta run defense in this matchup.
Bet Atlanta vs. Tennessee at FanDuel
The Falcons offense was billed as a run-heavy offense that wouldn't really need Desmond Ridder to play well in order to be successful. Regardless of the criticisms surrounding Arthur Smith's talent usage, the Falcons haven't been close to an efficient run offense in 2023. Atlanta ranks 28th in rushing success rate and 26th in EPA per rush. The numbers have slid considerably in the last month after a decent start in the opening weeks against two bad run defenses — Carolina and Green Bay.
The strength of the Titans defense is against the run. Tennessee has real holes in the secondary, but Ridder probably isn't the quarterback to exploit that. The Titans' run defense remains a top 10-12 unit overall, while the secondary is bottom five and just traded Byard.
If the Falcons are playing from ahead, the pace will slow down considerably. Atlanta is 29th in pace when playing with a lead, and the Titans rank dead last in last in pace when playing from behind. The Titans' snail pace will only get slower with the rookie and rotating QB situation.
Falcons vs. Titans
Betting Picks & Predictions
Neither offense wants to risk putting their young quarterback in a position to lose this game. The longer it stays close, the more running and slow-paced offense you'll see in this matchup. Another underrated factor for Tennessee: punter Ryan Stonehouse is second in the NFL in punting average.
He'll be active in forcing Atlanta to drive the length of the field to get points, and the Falcons red-zone issues won't be solved as long as their run game continues to struggle.
As hard as it is to believe in the modern NFL, this total should close below 35. I like the under at 35.5.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
