Ravens vs Falcons Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -108 | 34.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -112 | 34.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
We're tasked with finding a Ravens vs Falcons pick on Christmas Eve.
Another week of quarterback uncertainty for Baltimore has been cleared up. Lamar Jackson will miss his third straight start, and basically his fourth straight game as he left the Broncos game early.
Tyler Huntley has struggled in relief of Jackson and popped up on the injury report with an issue in his throwing shoulder. Huntley, who missed time over the summer with tendinitis in that same shoulder, was listed as questionable earlier in the week but will get the start.
On the Falcons' side, rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder made his first start last weekend and struggled mightily. He'll attempt to rebound in a tough road matchup with frigid temperatures.
Ravens vs Falcons Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and Falcons match up statistically:
Ravens vs Falcons DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 13 | 8 | |
| Pass DVOA | 19 | 9 | |
| Rush DVOA | 4 | 6 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 11 | 30 | |
| Pass DVOA | 13 | 29 | |
| Rush DVOA | 2 | 26 | |
The curious thing about this game is that despite both teams being in such a bad spot, they are both very much in the playoff race. With a 5-9 record, the Falcons — along with the Saints and Panthers — are only one game off of the Buccaneers' division lead. Atlanta has switched to a rookie quarterback and is struggling to perform, but still has incentive to win.
The Ravens started to struggle even before Jackson went down, but his heroics helped them win games. Since he got hurt, the offense has been in disarray. Things will now only get worse with Devin Duvernay out for the rest of the regular season with a foot injury.
However, Jackson's absence seems to have sparked the Ravens' defense in some ways. They have only given up 12.3 points per game in the three contests since Jackson went down. That has moved Baltimore into the top 10 in defensive DVOA and, more importantly for this game, sixth in defensive rush DVOA.
Bet Atlanta vs. Baltimore at FanDuel
The Falcons have been a run-first team all season and really relied on Tyler Allgeier last week. This Atlanta offense is fourth in offensive rush DVOA and 19th in pass, and that is with Marcus Mariota having some early season success in the pass game.
The Falcons want to run the ball a lot. Ridder is going into his second NFL start in a difficult environment against an elite defense. That plays into the hands of the Ravens, who are elite against the rush. Ridder averaged an abysmal 3.73 yards per attempt last week and I don't expect him to be able to produce anything in this game.
I also expect Baltimore to go run-heavy in this game. J.K. Dobbins has been a bit of a spark since returning from injury and was the only bright spot for Baltimore's offense last week. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman mentioned in his press conference this week that he definitely could have run the ball a bit more late in the game, but was trying to find something in the pass game.
I don't expect Roman to make the same mistake twice.
The Ravens should feed Dobbins as he continues to get back in the swing of things after his return from IR a couple of weeks ago.
The Falcons defense has also been better as of late, allowing just 19.6 points per game over their past three contests. The predictability of the Ravens' game plan without Jackson should only help Atlanta's stop unit.
Betting Picks
The weather is supposed to be below freezing in Baltimore on Saturday and Huntley could struggle to throw in this weather as he plays through injury.
Ridder should also be limited in terms of his ability to create offense because of both the weather and the Ravens defense. I expect both teams to be incredibly run heavy and for this to turn into a field-position battle.
For those reasons, I am rolling with the under. The Ravens defense has been on a mission since Jackson went down and their offense has done nothing to inspire confidence. Go with the under in what could be the Ravens' last game without Jackson.
As of 8:45 a.m. ET on Christmas Eve, PointsBet and Caesars are the only books still offering 35. Grab that total if you can, and use our live odds page to ensure you get the best number.
