Bears vs Falcons Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17 Preview
Bears vs Falcons odds for NFL Week 17 have the Bears installed as 3-point favorites on the spread with a game total over/under of 38. My Bears vs Falcons prediction & pick for NFL Week 17 is on this underdog.
It's Week 17, and the Falcons and Bears still have a chance of making the playoffs. It's a long shot for the Bears, but they are still mathematically in it after winning three of their last four games. As for the Falcons, they are one game behind the NFC South leaders (Buccaneers) and one game out of a crowded wild-card race, so they have two paths to make the postseason — but like the Bears, their chances are rather slim.
Bears vs Falcons Prediction & Pick
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Bears vs Falcons Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 38 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 38 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Bears vs Falcons Preview
The Falcons have found a way to stay afloat. They looked lifeless after a horrific loss to the Panthers two weeks ago but bounced back with a convincing win over the Colts.
Atlanta's defense has started to improve over the last few weeks and now ranks among the top 20 in defensive DVOA. Over its last five games, opponents are averaging just 14.2 points per game.
It's safe to say Taylor Heinicke is officially the superior option over Desmond Ridder. With the defense playing much better and Atlanta's strong running game, this squad just needs a game manager at quarterback. Ridder's turnovers were killing the Falcons in games like their loss to the Panthers.
Heinicke has been solid as he ranks 15th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play. That sandwiches him between Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, which obviously isn't bad company. Ridder is all the way down at 33rd on that list in between Sam Howell and Joshua Dobbs. The data supports Arthur Smith’s decision to make the switch and the Falcons offense should be in a better position moving forward.
Smith has received plenty of criticism for Bijan Robinson's lack of touches, but over the last couple of weeks, the rookie running back has started to see the ball more, which has led to explosive plays for Atlanta. Robinson finished with 122 all-purpose yards last week and was the team’s leading rusher and receiver.
Bears vs Falcons Picks | FanDuel
Chicago has played much better since Justin Fields returned to action. However, its schedule has been pretty easy, with the outlier being a win over Detroit.
The Bears' other wins over the last few weeks have been sketchy. They beat Bryce Young and the lowly Panthers by three at home, they won by two against the Vikings in a game Dobbs threw four interceptions and they handled the three-win Cardinals. They could've beaten the Browns as well, but couldn't take advantage of all the opportunities Cleveland gave them.
The Bears offense could be without some key players on Sunday. D.J. Moore hurt his ankle last Sunday and tried to play on it but looked limited. Additionally, Cole Kmet (knee) and Darnell Mooney (concussion) have both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. If any of those players can't go — or aren't at 100% — then the offense could struggle.
Given these injuries, the Bears might need to rely heaving on their run game. That would be good news for the Falcons, who have done well stopping the run as of late. David Onyemata is back at defensive tackle after missing two games and should fortify a Falcons run defense that is now fifth in defensive rush DVOA.
The Falcons are also getting healthy in the opposite trench on the offensive line. Jake Matthews, Drew Dalman and Chris Lindstrom all returned to their starting spots last week after missing the previous game. Kaleb McGary, who's missed the last three games, will also return to action.
Bears vs Falcons Prediction & Pick
Atlanta has played close games all year, and this one should be no different. Getting points with the Falcons has been great this season because they have been competitive in their losses since mid October.
Take the points with the Falcons as they look to stay in the playoff race.
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