The Atlanta Falcons (6-4-0) and Denver Broncos (5-5-0) meet in NFL Week 11. Kickoff is set for in 4:05 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Broncos are favored by 2.5 over the Falcons (Broncos -2.5) with the game total set at 44 points scored. The Broncos are -135 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Falcons are +115 to pull off the upset.
The Falcons lost 20-17 to the Saints last week. Atlanta rushed for 181 yards and Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards, but the Falcons couldn't turn that into more than 17 points. The Broncos lost 16-14 last week to the Chiefs after a game-winning field-goal attempt was blocked as time expired. Bo Nix threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns, including one to Courtland Sutton, who has 292 yards in the Broncos' last three games.
Let's get into my Broncos vs Falcons predictions and NFL picks for Week 11.
Falcons vs. Broncos Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -135 |
- Falcons vs. Broncos spread: Broncos -2.5
- Falcons vs. Broncos over/under: 44 points scored
- Falcons vs. Broncos moneyline: Broncos -135, Falcons +115
- Falcons vs. Broncos best bet: Broncos -2.5
My Falcons vs. Broncos best bet is on Denver. For all of your bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
This matchup does not bode well for the Falcons. Their defensive front, which can't get pressure on the quarterback, is facing the best pass-blocking offensive line in the NFL.
Bo Nix continues to show impressive comfort in Sean Payton's offense, and I suspect Denver will be able to move the ball easily. As long as you can get the Broncos laying less than a field goal, they're my pick.
Moneyline
I'm not betting the moneyline for the Broncos. I'm content laying the 2.5 points.
Over/Under
I have no bet on the game total.
My Pick: Broncos -2.5
Falcons vs. Broncos NFL Week 11 Preview
I was super impressed with Bo Nix last week despite the Broncos’ devastating loss to the Chiefs. He looked poised in a matchup against a really tough defense in a difficult environment. His comfort and competency has been on display all season, and that performance further emphasized a solid rookie season.
This week, it’s a much different matchup for Nix.
The Falcons defense is nothing like what the Broncos faced in Kansas City last week. Atlanta generates very little pressure on the quarterback, and it can be beaten in multiple ways (26th in DVOA against the pass, 19th against the run).
The Broncos' offensive line should have its way. Denver’s O-line ranks first in pass block win rate and should be able to power a strong ground attack here.
Sean Payton should be able to implement whatever kind of game plan he wants offensively, and that unit should be able to be efficient here.
The Falcons are coming off a divisional loss to the Saints but are still in control of the AFC South. Atlanta goes from playing in a dome to a non-conference game in Denver at altitude.
The Broncos defense will know what it’s going up against and how to make the Falcons' attack uncomfortable. I’m expecting Denver to bring a heavy dose of blitzes to throw Kirk Cousins off.
On one side, you have Nix — who should have a clean pocket to work in — and a Broncos offense that should be able to do whatever it wants. On the other side, you’re going to have Cousins under pressure, which will inevitably lead to a mistake or two.
The NFL market is usually pretty efficient at this time of year, and I don’t see a ton of value from a power ratings perspective. Based on this matchup, though, I’d recommend taking anything under a field goal to back the Broncos.
My Pick: Broncos -2.5
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