Falcons vs Saints Pick & Prediction | NFL Week 18
My Falcons vs Saints pick & prediction is on the spread, which has New Orleans installed as a three-point favorite with an over/under of 42 total points.
Two of the three teams still alive in the jumbled NFC South go head-to-head in NFL Week 18. The Buccaneers are in the driver’s seat as they win the division with a victory over the Panthers. However, if the Bucs lose, the winner of Falcons vs Saints will claim the NFC South crown and get the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs. Additionally, the Saints have an outside chance at a wild-card spot even if the Bucs win.
Let's break down Falcons vs Saints and get to my NFL Week 18 pick for this NFC South clash.
Falcons vs Saints Pick & Prediction
Falcons vs Saints Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Falcons vs. Saints Preview
The NFC South has been a disaster all season, so it’s only fitting that it comes down to these final two games in Week 18 with three teams in the mix.
The Falcons and Saints are rooting for the Panthers to upset the Bucs — which will be played at the same time, so there could be some scoreboard watching — to clear their path to the division crown.
In the first matchup between these teams (Week 12), the Falcons beat the Saints 24-15 in Atlanta. It was your usual ugly NFC South affair — the Saints scored all their points via field goal and the Falcons scored one of their touchdowns on a 92-yard pick-six.
The Saints enter Week 18 in better form, having won three of their last four games. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost three of their last four games and made a quarterback change from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke midway through this down run. The Saints beat the Buccaneers last week to get themselves into this position, so they should be riding high.
New Orleans also has the better team in this matchup by almost every metric. When it comes to overall DVOA, the Saints are 15th while the Falcons are 28th. New Orleans is 16th in defensive DVOA; the Falcons are 21st. The Saints are 20th in offensive DVOA, again ahead of the Falcons, who are 26th.
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Falcons vs. Saints Picks | FanDuel
At quarterback, the Saints have a clear advantage. It hasn’t been a great season for Derek Carr, but he's survived and can make big throws when needed. Carr ranks 19th in EPA+CPOE composite amongst qualified quarterbacks. Meanwhile Heinicke ranks 33rd, one spot behind Ridder.
Even when it comes to special teams DVOA, the Saints rank 14th while the Falcons rank 29th. Kicker Younghoe Koo used to be a major strength for Atlanta, but he's just 7-for-11 on field goals over his last four games.
Overall, Arthur Smith has massively mismanaged Atlanta's roster. The multiple quarterback switches have been a massive failure and the usage rates of key players — like first-round picks Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson — have been bizarre. The Falcons have survived an easy schedule to remain in contention, but I think their season should come to an end here.
The Saints have a highly motivated defense that should be able to shut down anything Atlanta wants to do. On offense, Carr should be able to make enough throws to win this game.
Falcons vs. Saints Pick & Prediction
I think getting the Saints at a field goal is a good price given that they are the better team in all three phases and will have home-field advantage.
However, if this line rises above a field goal, I'd recommend trying to combine the Saints into a moneyline parlay with the Cowboys rather than laying 3.5 or more in what should be a low-scoring game.
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