The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) and Washington Commanders (10-5) clash in the Week 17 edition of Sunday Night Football. Kickoff for SNF is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. The game will be broadcast on NBC and can be streamed on Peacock.
Falcons vs Commanders odds (via Caesars Sportsbook) have the Commanders as -190 moneyline favorites and Falcons as +158 underdogs. The over/under is set at 46 points (-115o / -105u). The Commanders are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Falcons (-3; -120).
Find my Sunday Night Football preview below, which includes my Falcons vs Commanders prediction and pick, in additional to the latest odds, betting trends, inactives, weather forecast and more.
Falcons vs Commanders SNF Predictions, Picks
Against the Spread
I have no play on the spread for Sunday Night Football. I explain why it's tough to get a read in my analysis below.
- 67% of the bets and 60% of the money are on the Commanders to cover the spread (-3.5)
Moneyline
Like the spread, I have no play on either moneyline.
- 90% of the bets and 94% of the money are on the Commanders moneyline
Over/Under
I like under 46.5 here. We have a combination of defensive-minded head coaches, rookie quarterbacks, a playoff atmosphere and potentially windy and wet weather.
- 72% of the bets and 64% of the money are on the over
My Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
Falcons vs Commanders Odds, Spreads, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 46 -115o / -105u | +164 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 46 -115o / -105u | -198 |
- Falcons vs Commanders spread: Falcons +3 (+100), Commanders -3 (-120)
- Falcons vs Commanders over/under: 46 (-115o / -105u)
- Falcons vs Commanders moneyline: Falcons +158, Commanders -190
- Falcons vs Commanders best bet: Under 46.5 (-110)
MyFalcons vs. Commanders best bet is on the game total to go under 46.5. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Commanders Sunday Night Football Preview & Prediction
At the time of this publication, 68% of the over/under bets for SNF have come in on the over, yet the total has dropped a point after opening at 47.5, indicating sharp action on the under.
I agree with the move — this matchup features two defensive-minded head coaches presiding over rookie quarterbacks in a game that likely will have important playoff implications for both teams, increasing the chances that the coaches play it closer to the vest than usual, and/or the players come out tight.
If the Panthers upset the Buccaneers in the 1 p.m. ET window, it would clinch a playoff berth for Washington. If the Eagles also beat the Cowboys, it puts the Commanders out of the running for the NFC East crown.
That would leave the Commanders with a lot less to play for, so we could see the total drop further throughout the day despite the over being the public side.
It's tough to get a true read on how to play the spread for this game for those reasons, but also because rookie Michael Penix Jr.'s first start came against a long-ago finished Giants defense.
Penix completed 18-of-27 passes for 205 yards and an interception that ricocheted off the hands of Kyle Pitts, who is surely in the running to be the Commanders' defensive MVP in this came. Penix completed 2-of-7 passes for 24 yards when pressured, and he could be under duress a lot more against a Commanders defense that is top 10 in pressure rate.
If the Falcons have their way, Penix will likely spend most of the night handing off to Bijan Robinson against a Commanders defense that ranks 25th in EPA per rush.
Against a similarly poor Giants run defense last week, the Falcons deployed a high-volume rushing attack that kept the chains moving but didn't produce many explosives, rushing 38 times for 127 yards and two touchdowns (22-94-2 for Robinson).
The Falcons could have kicking issues in this one. Younghoe Koo was placed on IR after missing nine of his 34 field-goal attempts, and Riley Patterson missed from inside 50 indoors last week. Patterson is not known for his leg strength, and we've started to see Raheem Morris bypass long field goal tries.
Jayden Daniels showed he's capable of destroying the league's best defense with 258 passing yards, 81 rushing yards and five TDs against the Eagles. The Falcons are 14th in defensive EPA per play, though their three best games of the year have come in the past four weeks.
Two of those games were against the lowly Giants and Raiders, but the third was against the Chargers, so we at least have to acknowledge that it's possible the Falcons defense is trending up. After registering 10 sacks in their first 11 games, the Falcons have 16 over their past four. The Commanders will be without starting right tackle Andrew Wylie (groin), who has not allowed a sack on 490 pass-blocking snaps, according to PFF.
The Commanders are also down two of their top four wide receivers — Noah Brown (IR; rib) and Dyami Brown (hamstring) — though with Terry McLaurin dominating targets, that probably hurts them more in the run game since it means more snaps for Olamide Zaccheaus (5-foot-8, 193 pounds) and Jamison Crowder (5-foot-9, 177 pounds).
We could also see healthy inactive staple K.J. Osborn make his Commanders debut. Brown and Wylie went down last week, so with time to prepare, I think we could see an uptick in heavy personnel usage by the Commanders because starting tight end Zach Ertz is essentially a 34-year-old slot receiver. His PFF run-blocking grade of 47.6 ranks 65th of 77 qualified tight ends.
We will likely see high winds at Northwest Stadium for this game, with forecasts calling for 14 mph winds. Forecasts are also calling for high humidity and potential rain.
According to our Action Labs data, totals in contests with eight-plus mph winds and high humidity are 223-135-3 (62.3%) to the under since 2003, covering by 2.59 points per game.
If unders aren't your thing, or you're looking for more of a long-shot bet, someone to target on the player prop side is Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Typically Washington's RB3, Rodriguez has seen an uptick in usage as a runner while RB2 Jeremy McNichols has assumed more of the Austin Ekeler passing-down role.
Rodriguez could also see heavy usage late in the game if the Commanders are up, or if they don't have much to play for pending the results of the earlier games. He already has five carries inside the 10-yard line this season; he is a good anytime TD or last TD bet.
My Pick: Under 46.5 (-110); Bet to Under 45
Falcons vs Commanders Trends
Falcons Trends
- Falcons are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Falcons are 3-4 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Falcons' last 5 games
Commanders Trends
- Commanders are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Commanders' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Commanders' 8 last games at home
Falcons vs Commanders Inactives
Falcons Inactives
- RB Carlos Washington
- CB Kevin King
- DL Brandon Dorlus
- OL Elijah Wilkinson
- T Tyrone Wheatley Jr.
- T Brandon Parker
- WR Casey Washington
Commanders Inactives
- WR Dyami Brown
- QB Jeff Driskel
- CB Marshon Lattimore
- S Tyler Owens
- LB Dominique Hampton
- LB Jordan Magee
- T Andrew Wylie
