Atlanta Legends-Arizona Hotshots AAF Betting Guide: How to Play This with John Wolford’s Status in Flux

Betting Odds: Atlanta Legends at Arizona Hotshots

• Spread: Arizona -14
• Over/Under: 41.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
• TV: NFL Network

Betting market: The Hotshots opened as 13.5-point favorites, but they're on the rise already.

The over/under has dropped since opening at 41.5, but any news on Arizona quarterback John Wolford (strained back) could be crucial to both the spread and total.

Week 3 Takeaways

Atlanta's 28-12 Loss Against Birmingham

• Matt Simms wasn't terrible in Week 3, but the league's worst offense didn't do him any favors with a seemingly never-ending supply of back-breaking drops. It remains to be seen whether the Legends will even pretend to have a run game moving forward: They boast a league-high 65% pass-play rate after three weeks. No other offense is higher than even 56%.
• Denard Robinson was surprisingly one of just six running backs that played at least 50% of their offense's Week 3 snaps just a week after being a healthy scratch. Shoeless could see reduced snaps due to his general ineffectiveness and brutal end-zone drop, but none of Lawrence Pittman, Akrum Wadley nor Tarean Folston (inactive Week 3) have done much to warrant additional touches.
• Seantavius Jones joins the fab-five AAF receivers with a target market share of at least 20.2% as well as the fantastic-four players that have at least 300 air yards. No. 2 receiver Malachi Jones boasts a 12.8% target share this season and played 53% of the offense's snaps last week. Seantavius has easily shown the most big-play ability in this offense and helped convert the league's first successful "onside kick".

Arizona’s 23-15 Loss Against Salt Lake

• It's #WolfordWatch time in Arizona. Wolford was unable to return after the first play of the second half in Week 3 due to a strained back. Trevor Knight didn't put up great statistics in relief, but his willingness to throw the deep ball could produce some fan-friendly offense when paired with the 96th-percentile SPARQ-x athlete’s rushing ability.
• Jhurell Pressley racked up a combined 14 carries and targets while leading the way with a 51% snap rate in Week 3. Neither Justin Stockton nor Week 2 hero Tim Cook have significant roles, but it seems unlikely that any single back winds up with a consistent three-down workload.
• Rashad Ross has caught 15-of-20 targets for 221 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Huff also offers weekly upside, especially while Richard Mullaney remains sidelined with a knee injury. Ross has received an incredibly fantasy-friendly workload as the offense's featured deep ball and red-zone target and is locked in as a top three overall receiver.

Which team is healthier? Atlanta

The most significant injury to watch this week is Wolford (strained back), who managed to practice on Wednesday and is considered day-to-day.

Arizona also hopes to have defensive back SaQuan Edwards (hamstring), but stud linebacker Steven Johnson (hamstring) is considered "questionable at best." Wide receiver Richard Mullaney (knee) reportedly "seems likely" to miss this week's game.

Atlanta is believed to be near full health with the exception of right tackle John Kling IV (ankle), who was placed on the injured reserve list. Additionally, the Legends signed running back Brandon Radcliff due to reported injuries to both Akrum Wadley and Tarean Folston.

Key matchup: Arizona's WRs vs. Atlanta's CBs

The Hotshots have averaged a strong 7.7 yards per attempt through the air, a mark that only trails the Apollos (10.1). Meanwhile, the Legends currently employs four of Pro Football Focus' bottom 12 cornerbacks in passer rating allowed this season.

Ross and Huff boast enough talent and route-running ability to make life tough on any AAF secondary, let alone what could be the league's weakest crop of cornerbacks.

Their ability to dominate this matchup would make life significantly easier on Knight if Wolford is ultimately unable to suit up.

DFS edge: Arizona Quarterback

Wolford is pretty much the league's consensus No. 2 quarterback and is facing the undisputed worst team in the AAF. Yet his $5,700 price tag is just the sixth-highest salary among quarterbacks.

Knight is even lower at $5,300, giving us a prime opportunity to roster the signal caller of a top offense facing the league's worst defense in points allowed per game.

Here's what Wolford said about his status on Wednesday: "Not 100% yet but hoping to be 100% by the end of the week … just a strain. My back locked up. Nothing serious. X-rays came back negative."

He certainly looked ready to go in practice.

Bet to watch: Arizona -14

We've seen the biggest mismatch of the week yield spreads up to 16 points in past weeks, so I'm happy to lock in Arizona at a reasonable cost against easily the worst team in the AAF.