Betting Odds: Atlanta Legends at Birmingham Iron
- Spread: Iron -6
- Over/Under: 38
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting market: Neither the spread nor game total have moved since open.
Week 7 Takeaways
Atlanta's 36-6 Loss to Orlando
The Legends have distinguished themselves as the AAF's worst team. Their -117 point differential is far worse than either of the remaining 2-5 teams (Memphis -39 and Salt Lake -13).
Aaron Murray seems to be locked in as the starting quarterback. Still, he’s failed to play the full game in consecutive weeks thanks to back-to-back blowout losses of 30-plus points. He's yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game and hasn’t reached even 250 passing yards since Week 5.
The Legends have scored more than 14 points in just one game.
Birmingham's 31-25 Loss to Memphis
Birmingham suffered its third loss in an overtime thriller to the Express.
Luis Perez threw for zero touchdowns in 153 pass attempts in Weeks 1-5 compared to five scores through the air in 87 attempts in Weeks 6 and 7. Still, he’s completed only 49% of his passes over this stretch and has averaged a pedestrian 6.8 yards per attempt.
Trent Richardson (84% snaps in Week 7) remains the league's most-fed workhorse while Quinton Patton continues to work as the offense's No. 1 receiver with Amba Etta-Tawo and Jamal Robinson seeing plenty of snaps.
Which team is healthier? Atlanta
The Legends don't have any offensive players listed on their injury report and appear mostly healthy on the defensive side of the ball — surprising news for the clear-cut worst team in the league.
The Iron, meanwhile, have a plethora of banged up skill position players.
Receivers Quinton Patton (neck) and L'Damian Washington (head) joined backup running back Ty Issac (ankle) on the sideline to start the week. The good news is that Patton and Isaac were able to get in a limited practice on Thursday. Stud cornerback Jamar Summers (knee) hasn't practiced all week.
Key matchup: Birmingham's Rush Offense vs. Atlanta's Front Seven
We know the Legends offense has had a tough time scoring against pretty much anyone, and that's not expected to change against Birmingham's Iron "Curtain" defense.
The problem is that Atlanta also boasts one of the league's worst defenses when it comes to stopping the run, which means T-Rich and Co. have a chance to finally take some relief off of their much-maligned passing game.
Atlanta ranks among the league's bottom-two rush defenses in …
- 106.4 rushing yards allowed per game (8th)
- 12 rushing touchdowns allowed (8th)
- 4.6 yards allowed per rush (7th)
Failure to slow down Trent "2.6" Richardson between the 20-yard lines this Sunday could be fatal for the chances of the AAF's worst team pulling a road upset.
DFS edge: Stack the Birmingham Offense
Bercovici and Perez have separated themselves as tournament-friendly options at quarterback thanks to their consistent volume and penchant for throwing downfield.
Patton continues to be underpriced relative to his target share and offers value in a stack with Perez and Richardson. Patton (58 targets) and Richardson (43) are two of just nine players with at least 40 targets.
QB-RB-WR stacks aren't always the best-tournament options, but Richardson and Patton's uniquely large target shares gives each player a high floor worth paying up for.
Bet to watch: Iron -6
This spread is well below the -9.5 that Action Network's director of predictive analytics Sean Koerner predicted before the market opened.
It's easily my favorite bet of the week because:
- The Iron have anyone's idea of a top-two defense in terms of ability to prevent points and limit opposing passing games.
- Their typically poor pass offense has shown new life in recent weeks, but they might not even be needed if T-Rich can get going against what's been one of the league's worst run defenses.
- The Legends have been the AAF's worst team since pretty much Week 1 and have consistently struggled to even keep games close.
