Austin Ekeler, Evan Engram and Keenan Allen represent the most popular NFL player prop bets for Saturday's wild card round tilt: Chargers vs. Jaguars.
Our premier data analytics expert Nick Giffen assessed the value for these most popular picks, which primarily target the anytime TD marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Chargers vs. Jaguars Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Austin Ekeler to score a touchdown at anytime (-150)
- Evan Engram to record over 40.5 receiving yards (-105)
- Keenan Allen to score a touchdown at anytime (+120)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Saturday morning.
The Action Network and our predictive models have been relatively bearish on Ekeler's touchdown prop all season. Not because we don't think it'll happen — he's the NFL's leading running back at TDs this season for a reason — but because sportsbooks know this, too.
Ekeler's pedigree means his TD prop is overpriced week-in, week-out.
The playoffs are no different — they're likely worse. The markets tend to be far more efficient for the playoffs, with an increased volume of wagers due to heightened interest and the reduced number of games.
While Ekeler's anytime TD fair price should be -115, the best price on the market is at PointsBet at -150. The worst? All the way at -190 at BetMGM. That's a pass.
Allen's anytime TD prop at a market-best price of +145 at BetMGM is also a pass. The fair value line, according to Giffen, is +187.
The best prop on this list is Engram's receiving yards prop. He's projected to record 39 yards, according to our models. His odds at o40.5 are just above fair value, but negligible enough if you're properly bullish on the Jaguars offense.
