Austin Ekeler Under 4.5 Receptions (-109)
Cowboys vs. Chargers | 8:15 p.m. ET
Austin Ekeler is set to return for the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football after missing the past three games with an ankle injury. His elite pass-catching skills rank among the best at running back in the NFL, but I see an edge in taking him to go under his receptions line in this difficult matchup.
By design, the Dallas Cowboys have lined up in man coverage at the third-highest rate this season (32.8%) per PFF – a scheme in which Ekeler has historically struggled.
Last season, only 16 of his 92 total Targets (17%) came in man coverage, while his 13.0% Target Share was the fifth-lowest rank among qualified running backs. Additionally, his Targets per Route Run decreased significantly from 33.0% to 12.0% when facing man coverage.
Dallas generates a lot of pressure on its opponents thanks to Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence, which forces opponents to use their running backs more for blocking than running. So far this season, no opposing running back has met this receptions number, not even big names like Christian McCaffrey (two) or Saquon Barkley (three).
Finally, it's important to keep in mind his splits when sharing the ball with target-hog Keenan Allen (31.0% Target Share). Last season, Ekeler averaged 9.3 Targets in Allen’s absence but saw this average drop to 6.2 Targets in the 10 games when both players were active.
Ekeler went under this prop in six of the 10 games, including two outlier double-digit target games against Arizona and Seattle (two of the most zone-heavy defenses) that inflated his average.
Action Network’s prop tool shows a 6.7% edge favoring the under, and I would play his 4.5 receptions line up to -125 at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Pick: Ekeler Under 4.5 Receptions -109 (Caesars | Play to -125)
