We're not quite halfway through the season, but as we head toward Halloween, the 2024 NFL awards races are starting to take shape.
A few awards, like Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, have clear favorites emerging in a rapidly narrowing field. Others see a plurality at the top, like Defensive Player of the Year after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. And then there's MVP, where an old name — Lamar Jackson — emerged as a new favorite after a big game Monday night in a wonky, ever-changing race.
Let's take a look at each of the seven awards markets, with a State of the Union on where things stand, a look at the favorites and long shots, and verdicts on how to look to invest going forward.
Coach of the Year
State of the Union
Coach of the Year typically goes to one of the league's big overachievers, which makes this a narrative award. Naturally, the names at the top of the market — Kevin O'Connell, Dan Quinn, Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin — lead the NFL's biggest surprise teams so far.
The Favorites
O'Connell probably should've won this two years ago and he makes sense as the favorite at +275 (DraftKings). Minnesota's 5-0 start sets the Vikings up as around a 25% shot at the 1-seed, and the team doesn't have another clear front runner for an award. If the Vikings top the NFC, this is an obvious and easy way to recognize them as winners.
That's not necessarily the case for Dan Quinn (+300 FanDuel). The Commanders are 5-2 with a 35% shot at a top-2 seed, but Washington has played a soft schedule and has a pretty difficult back-half slate. And if they do keep winning, Jayden Daniels will get more of the credit than Quinn and be first in line for an award. He's a tough sell at his price.
Sean Payton is next in odds, another tough sell with the Chiefs flying high atop the division limiting how much splash Denver can really make. You're better off playing Denver to make the playoffs at +198 (FanDuel), a nice value, or even nibbling the Broncos to win the division at +3500 (ESPN Bet), a better payout for your unlikely investment.
Mike Tomlin has somehow never won Coach of the Year. He's an obvious candidate if Pittsburgh keeps it going at 5-2 and takes the division, but the Steelers have a brutal back-half schedule and not much offense. You may be better playing them game-to-game than grabbing a +1000 ticket.
Long Shots
Andy Reid hasn't won Coach of the Year since way back in 2002. The Chiefs are rolling and projected to win 13.8 games at FTN, with an 80% chance at a top-2 seed. Kansas City will be significant favorites in all but two remaining games, even with Patrick Mahomes not playing that well. If the Chiefs make a run at 17-0 or even get close, Reid has to be a consideration for a lifetime achievement type award (+1600 DraftKings).
I'm still buying Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks, too. Seattle lost three games in 11 days when it racked up defensive injuries at the wrong time but looked good when healthy on Sunday. The Seahawks have a real shot at 12+ wins with a balanced offense and improving defense.
Seattle is the best team in the market to invest in right now. I like the over 8.5 (+115 DraftKings) and make playoff odds (+180), with Seattle projected at 9.5 wins and better than 50-50 to make. I like the division odds even better at +275 (BetRivers), and if they win that, Macdonald will be in play as a first-year Coach of the Year winner at +2000 (BetMGM).
Verdict
Kevin O'Connell is the right favorite but too short to invest, and you're buying high. I don't like investing in Quinn, Payton or Tomlin with their price tags.
I'm still looking to invest in Seattle futures, and Macdonald COY is a great way to do it at +2000, especially since Seattle hosts Minnesota late in the season. Reid is a no brainer addition too at +1800 with as well as the Chiefs are playing.
Sly bettors may consider betting both Mahomes and Reid for their awards, respectively, assuming someone's gotta win something if the Chiefs keep rumbling toward 14 or 15 wins and lapping the league.
Comeback Player of the Year
State of the Union
Always an interesting narrative award, CPOY has already made noise when Sam Darnold ranked among the betting favorites before NFL news breakers leaked reports about the league prioritizing giving this award to a comeback from injury, not from being an awful draft pick bouncing around the league.
That was probably a direct reaction to Joe Flacco coming off the couch two-thirds of the way through the season to steal this award from Damar Hamlin as a shocking +25000 winner that we nailed last year.
The Favorites
The favorite here makes zero practical sense — it's RB J.K. Dobbins (+300), returning from a torn Achilles in the midst of a relatively generic season for a forgettable Chargers team. There's not much narrative or buzz here. Do fans even know who J.K. Dobbins is?
I suspect Dobbins' odds are mostly just a reflection of a couple popular internet doctors who keep telling followers to bet on Dobbins when the reality is that Garrison Hearst is the only RB ever to win this award.
A trio of QBs are up next: Kirk Cousins (+360 ESPN Bet), Joe Burrow (+400 DraftKings) and Aaron Rodgers (+550 FanDuel). Rodgers and the Jets stink, and Cousins is fine but vanilla. Burrow has been by far best of the three and is playing MVP ball. He probably won't win that award for a 3-4 Bengals team, but this would be a pretty easy consolation.
And then there's Damar Hamlin. Last season, Hamlin's comeback was just stepping on a football field again a couple plays a game after his horrific injury. This year he's actually starting and making a serious impact, with 43 combined tackles and two interceptions.
Long Shots
Keep an eye out here, as the last two winners Geno Smith and Joe Flacco, came from totally off the radar midseason. Could someone like Tua Tagovailoa — unlisted at books right now — return from injury and grab some momentum?
Nick Chubb is back after a horrible knee injury and got a TD in his return, but his odds are nuked at +1000. He also plays for a bad team and will likely face a slow ramp-up.
Sam Darnold is technically not ineligible, so he's hilariously intriguing at +5500 (FanDuel). Voters can be instructed however the NFL wants, but if the Vikings win the top seed and voters side with Darnold, he can still win this award.
Verdict
Dobbins makes zero sense as the betting favorite here and doesn't fit history at all. I don't see value in Cousins or Rodgers either at this point.
I'm honestly not sure why voters wouldn't give this award to Damar Hamlin. We all watched him survive a near-death experience on the field and now he's a starting safety recording multiple interceptions for a division winner, and the league literally changed the rules for this award because of him.
I recommended Hamlin as soon as his odds posted at +3000, then again at +1200, and he's still playable at +600 (BetRivers). I'll play Burrow. too (+400 DraftKings), a combined position just under +200.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
State of the Union
The latest draft was loaded with offensive talent, including six quarterbacks in the first 12 picks, but it's the top two picks who have stood out immediately.
The NFL flexed its schedule to feature Caleb Williams versus Jayden Daniels this coming Sunday afternoon as its Game of the Week, and they may as well advertise it as an Offensive Rookie of the Year showdown.
The Favorites
It sure looks like it's Jayden Daniels (-125 FanDuel) or Caleb Williams (+115 DraftKings), and it's shaping up to be a race for the ages.
Daniels leads the entire NFL in completion percentage at 75.6%. He also leads the league in EPA + CPOE, an advanced metric that would typically indicate MVP contention, and he's the leader of a 5-2 Commanders offense lighting up the league.
Williams has thrown nine TDs but five interceptions, three more of each than Daniels. He ranks only 19th in EPA + CPOE and is 10% behind Daniels in completion rate, but he's less than 100 yards behind Daniels with one less game played, and the Bears are 4-2 themselves.
Long Shots
Malik Nabers was in this after 35 receptions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">catches for 384 yards and three scores in September, but the concussion probably knocked him out of the race as he has only 41 yards in October. Nabers is a target monster and ranks seventh in the NFL in receptions, but he's fallen far back in the race now (+2200 ESPN Bet).
Brock Bowers (+4000) actually leads the NFL in receptions entering Monday night with 47 and ranks top 10 in yards, but no tight end has ever won OROY and the Raiders are irrelevant. Brian Thomas is fifth in receiving yards but the numbers don't pop for an off-radar team. Marvin Harrison Jr. has disappointed.
Drake Maye is the most intriguing long shot after two impressive starts, but he missed five starts and plays on a losing team, so it's hard to see him closing ground on those top two winning QBs.
Verdict
I'm only looking at the top two QBs — both would have to get hurt and fall out of the race at this point for it to open up.
Daniels has been significantly better than Williams and should be a clear favorite. Williams has played the league's easiest schedule by DVOA with the toughest schedule remaining, racking up counting numbers against terrible defenses. That's keeping this race artificially close and should buy value on Daniels.
The problem is that Daniels just got injured. That makes him week-to-week and puts his status for the big OROY showdown against Williams in jeopardy, and it also cost Daniels an entire game of counting stats against the hapless Panthers.
I can't recommend betting minus odds a third of the way through the season on an already-injured, slight-framed QB, but Daniels wins this award if he stays healthy enough. So, I'm waiting for the right spot to bet, perhaps after a big Williams day.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
State of the Union
This was always going to be one of the most interesting and wide open markets to track all year in a top-heavy, offensively loaded draft that didn't see a single defensive player go off the board until pick No. 15.
Defensive awards notoriously go to the most recognizable names and almost always go to first-round picks for DROY, and that means a pretty narrow field of options. Defensive awards have also leaned very sack-heavy over the past decade.
Minnesota edge rusher Dallas Turner was a co-favorite entering the season and had a sack in the opener, but he has battled injury and played only around 20% of the snaps since, falling off the radar. That's left two of the other top edge rusher draft picks, Jared Verse (+200) and Laiatu Latu (+500 FanDuel), to battle at the top of the race.
The Favorites
Latu was the first defender off the board, typically a great indicator for DROY success, and he fit my DROY profile to a T. He also plays on the Colts, a team still relevant to the playoff race, and he has two sacks.
Verse has only one sack for the Rams, but he's been the better player. He ranks fourth among edge rushers in ESPN's Pass Rush Win Rate behind only Myles Garrett, Danielle Hunter and Will McDonald at 27%, and he leads all rookies in pressures with 29 after tallying nine on Sunday.
Both players rank inside the top 30 at PFF grade, but Verse is especially impressive at No. 15. He is a star and immediate difference maker for the Rams, but he also has trouble actually turning his pressures into sacks — and voters love splash stats.
Long Shots
It's a big drop from Verse and Latu to the rest of the field, so much so that you effectively bet those two together for implied odds of +100, even against the field. The next guys on the odds list are secondary players like Quinyon Mitchell and Kamari Lassiter, who just don't fit the profile of players who have won this award.
Two names further down the list are worth monitoring. Seattle DT Byron Murphy (+2200 DraftKings) missed three games with an injury, but the Seahawks are 4-0 with him in the lineup. He was the second defender off the board and ranks top 20 in PFF pass rush grade at his position with the second-best pressure rate among rookies at 15%. He could thrive in Mike Macdonald's system that saw DT Nnamdi Madubuike rack up 13 sacks last season.
Green Bay S Evan Williams (+3700 FanDuel) is thriving as a full-time starter over the past month. He ranks top five in PFF grade at safety and already has an interception, and he made a huge tackle on a two-point conversion Sunday in a game his team won by two. No safety has won DROY and Williams was a fourth-round pick, so it could be hard to get attention, but he's way better than this number.
Verdict
If you want to set it and forget it, it's reasonable to just play both Verse and Latu, especially if you grab Latu at +500 (DraftKings) when he's as short as +250 elsewhere. Those two against the field are a strong position given how weak this year's field is.
Verse is my pick to win the award, but I have a hard time playing +200 on a bad defense for a guy with only one sack, so I'll wait for a better price. I don't mind playing Latu +500 now and am hoping to add Verse at a similar price after a Latu sack game.
Evan Williams is better than his +3700 price would indicate, but he just does not fit the profile of a winner as a mid-round safety. Byron Murphy does. I'm playing Murphy at +2200 and will look for an opportunity to add Verse at a discount price.
Offensive Player of the Year
State of the Union
This awards race hasn't exactly gone as planned. The leading favorites, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb, have disappointed and tumbled down the odds boards. Instead, it's a pair of running backs leading the way in Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.
Three receivers had won OPOY in four years, but it was back to another RB last season in Christian McCaffrey. Will the receivers keep the momentum going, or is it the Year of the RB once again?
The Favorites
There was some value on Derrick Henry heading into Monday night around +165, and Henry was quiet much of the game before ripping off a monster 81-yard late to finish with 169 rushing yards and a receiving TD to boot. Henry was leading the league in yards and touchdowns even before the game; now he's lapping the field.
Henry has 10 TDs in seven games, a pace for 24 trips to the end zone. We haven't seen RB production like that often, and that's why he's the odds-on favorite for OPOY now around +100 at most books. Henry won this once before, but we haven't seen a RB repeat since Marshall Faulk won three in a row from 1999 through 2001. Saquon Barkley lurks behind at +325 (ESPN Bet) after a big revenge game.
The quarterbacks near the top of the odds, like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, don't have particularly eye-popping stats and don't feel like strong threats. If a QB emerges statistically, he just might be the MVP. But those WRs are lurking.
Justin Jefferson has 531 yards and five TDs and could easily lead the league in both yards and TDs by the end of the season. But he's also won this award before and expectations are always high, and a bet on Jefferson is a bet on Sam Darnold too. The former is priced accurately at +750.
If you want a wiedeout, Ja'Marr Chase might be the better investment. He leads the NFL in yards and touchdowns with 620 and six, and he already has seven catches of at least 28 yards. Chase has been an explosive play waiting to happen, and as poor as Cincinnati's defense has been, the Bengals will be passing deep into every game, often from behind. The numbers should be there.
Long Shots
RIP to Chris Godwin, who had a spot reserved here before a dislocated ankle likely ended his season Monday night. Nico Collins might also be down for the count, since he's on IR and can't return until Week 10. Collins has 567 yards already in just five games — closer to four games really. Those two were playing as well as any wide receiver in the league.
There's one other WR who got hurt but looks healthy again now. A.J. Brown missed three games but has 324 yards and a trio of scores in the three games he's played. We already saw him put up 831 yards and five TDs in a dominant six-game stretch last season. That missed time will be tough to overcome, but Brown is a monster and has a soft remaining schedule. He's intriguing at +10000 (DraftKings).
Verdict
I'm still not convinced we're back to the era of the RBs here. I definitely wouldn't invest in Saquon Barkley at his short price, and if Derrick Henry beats me at +100 with his age and workload profile and two-thirds of the season to go, so be it. I want receivers.
Winning isn't as important for OPOY, and Ja'Marr Chase has been in the mix for this award before. He's a worthwhile ticket at +1300 (FanDuel). I'll also nibble the long A.J. Brown 100-ticket and keep my eye on Nico Collins just in case.
Defensive Player of the Year
State of the Union
The DPOY race was blown wide open when Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson went down with a gruesome injury last week. Hutchinson was leading the league in sacks, a clear favorite on a Super Bowl contender.
With him out for the season, T.J. Watt has been installed as the odds-on favorite, and Houston sophomore Will Anderson has leapt to second in the odds with a big push at an optimal time. This race looks wide open and there for the taking.
The Favorites
Watt is a generational defender who's won this award before, but it's still pretty difficult to justify pricing him at +100 and feels like an overreaction to the open market. Watt has 4.5 sacks for a great Steel Curtain defense and just happened to have a big game right as Hutchinson went down, but there's just no reason he should be priced as Watt vs. the field with two-thirds of the season to go.
It's similarly tough to recommend Will Anderson. He picked a good time to have a three-sack game last week but he's young for the typical profile here, likely the flavor of the week. Chris Jones is third in odds but also a tough sell. Everyone loves Jones, but the Chiefs defense will take a step back without top cover corner Jaylen Watson, and Jones has only three sacks. Voters want splash stats.
Sexy Dexy is a popular choice right now with Dexter Lawrence leading the league with nine sacks, including six the last three games. It's tough for a DT not named Aaron Donald to win this thing and Lawrence's terrible Giants will probably end up in the tank soon, so that's a tough sell.
Nick Bosa has won DPOY, a good indicator for winning again, and has 3.5 sacks. We haven't seen a linebacker win this in a decade, but Fred Warner is the best in the business and is building a splashy resume with four forced fumbles, two picks, a sack and a TD. But both have short-ish odds for a sub-.500 49ers team in real danger of missing the playoffs.
Those are the top six names in the market right now. I'm not convinced DPOY will be any of them.
Long Shots
Call me crazy, but I'm still hunting a couple long shot names much further down the board: Myles Garrett (+3500 ESPN Bet) and Micah Parsons (+8000 FanDuel).
Voters love to go back to the well in this market with guys that have won the award previously or gotten close, and these two finished top three last season. Garrett has four sacks despite playing hurt and could end up traded to a more important team, giving him some narrative juice.
Parsons has only one sack and has missed a couple games but should be healthy out of the bye, and he's an incredibly streaky player who can rack up two or three sacks a game in the right matchup.
Verdict
I just can't get there on the pricing for any of the favorites at the top. Watt would be my most likely winner, but there's no world where he's bettable at +100 right now. Anderson and Jones are badly mispriced.
With an open race, this is the time to play long shot names we know. It's a long season. Garrett and Parson can close the sack gap in a hurry. They're priced far too long at +3500 and +8000.
NFL MVP
State of the Union
It took seven weeks, but we officially have an MVP frontrunner after a huge Lamar Jackson game on Monday night. The defending MVP threw five TDs in Tampa Bay, and he's now tied for second in passing touchdowns. He added 52 yards on the ground to boot on Monday.
One day before, Patrick Mahomes reached as short as +200 after winning a Super Bowl rematch against the 49ers, but his poor counting numbers saw a steam toward Jackson and Josh Allen before Monday night, and now Jackson is a clear leader. He dropped from +600 early Monday to around +250 to +275 after Monday's game.
The Favorite
Jackson is a two-time MVP, yet he's playing the best ball of his career. He's now at 15 passing TDs with just two interceptions, plus a pace for 1,100 rushing yards on top of it. The advanced metrics are much better than a year ago, too: top five in EPA + CPOE and climbing after Monday.
But you want to be leading MVP after Week 18, not Week 7, and no one should know that better than Jackson, who was hardly in the race much of last season until Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen all came up short late with Jackson peaking in a Christmas game to steal the award.
Only six players ever have won MVP in back-to-back seasons, and only four players in modern history have won at least three MVPs. That's hallowed ground Jackson would have to enter with a third MVP — one I'm not sure voters will be ready to grant.
For all of his regular season wins, Jackson is an ugly 2-4 in the postseason with a reputation for coming up short in the games that matter. MVP is a narrative award. Jackson has the numbers and the narrative buzz right now, but he's the guy everyone will pick apart as the favorite. He'll play really tough Steelers and Texans defenses in Weeks 16 and 17 this year, dangerous timing for an MVP favorite who can be inconsistent and make big mistakes.
Lamar Jackson is a clear no bet at +275, and his emergence as a clear MVP favorite has finally brought value on other names down the board.
The Top Contenders
Patrick Mahomes was the favorite 24 hours before Jackson emerged, despite playing one of the worst six-game stretches of his career thus far. He actually leads the NFL in interceptions right now with eight, two more picks than touchdowns thrown. Mahomes ranks 15th in EPA + CPOE. There's zero statistical argument for him as MVP, let alone the second favorite at +500 (ESPN Bet).
The funny thing, though, is that statistics don't always decide MVP — just check last year's numbers.
Mahomes doesn't have the numbers, yet, but he could by January, and he's going to have a heck of a narrative case. Mahomes is waiting on his third MVP, too, and you had better believe some voters will feel much better crowning Mahomes among the legends before Jackson, given all his postseason success that's already cemented the former QB's status as an all-time great.
Mahomes might also make a serious run at 17-0. The Chiefs aren't winning pretty, but they're 6-0 and have a pretty good shot at heading into Buffalo 9-0 in a month. Mahomes has a good history against Josh Allen, and that could be a head-to-head MVP battle. Win that and a soft schedule could send Mahomes all the way to 14-0 and another MVP battle against C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
Kansas City will likely be a double-digit favorite at least six more times. Mahomes projects to 13.8 wins at FTN, with around an 80% shot at a top-two seed. We know MVP overwhelmingly goes to a winning QB, and Mahomes is also winning without his top two RBs and now his top three WRs. Sounds like an MVP to me, especially if the stats come around.
Jared Goff was another name that saw steam Monday, coming as short as +500 at some books, but that seemed silly. Goff is this year's Brock Purdy, a system guy who voters will be hesitant to credit. He plays at Green Bay and Houston in the next three weeks, and he closes the season against the Bills, Bears, 49ers and Vikings, with two of those games outdoors. There are just too many chances to "lose" MVP even if these odds shorten by then.
Josh Allen will always be in the mix. He gets some help with Amari Cooper in town, and he has the advanced metrics at No. 2 in EPA + CPOE. He's also getting lucky with turnovers, as he's yet to throw an interception despite his worst Turnover Worthy rate since his rookie season. That creates an easy "finally cutting out the mistakes" narrative if it keeps up.
Allen has come big games left: at Seattle this week, games against the Chiefs and 49ers on either side of a bye, at Detroit later. Those are chances to win — or lose — the MVP. He could weirdly sputter to the finish line with what might be meaningless games against the Patriots, Jets, then Patriots again to end the season, leaving a missing narrative late. He's priced about right at +500 and is always a threat.
Long Shots
C.J. Stroud was among the favorites before an oddly quiet game in Green Bay. He's playing very well for Houston despite getting little help from the rest of the offense, but he has a pretty tough task ahead with road games at the Jets, Cowboys and Chiefs, including back-to-back Chiefs-Ravens games in Weeks 16 and 17 that could mean a shot at an MVP push but may likely mean the end of it instead. He's a better value now at +1300 (DraftKings) than he was last week.
I still prefer the guy he just played, Jordan Love (+1600 BetRivers). Love leads the NFL in touchdowns per game at 3.0, and he led the league outright before Baker Mayfield's big night Monday — and that's despite missing two games already. The problem is that Love also leads the league in interceptions, and that's despite missing two games already too.
A game against the Lions next week could kickstart Love's MVP campaign, but voters have tended to penalize or even eliminate QBs with high interception totals. Love is making up for them with big plays, but he'll need to cut the turnovers to have any shot.
Joe Burrow is playing great ball but has four losses already, leaving a very thin margin. So too for Brock Purdy. Jayden Daniels has more wins but is hurt now, and a rookie MVP is a steep ask. I still wonder if Derrick Henry could sneak into the conversation at some point. He's +6000 (FanDuel) and could get some "real MVP of the Ravens this season" talk.
I still haven't given up hope on Geno Smith, all the way down there at +10000 (BetMGM). Smith leads the league in passing attempts, completions and yardage. He's absolutely dealing in Ryan Grubb's pass-heavy offense and has the numbers to show for it, and he's playing the best ball of his life for a team that has a real shot at pushing 12+ wins. He's a long shot, but not 100-to-1 long.
Want to get really crazy? The Steelers keep winning games, and now they might have an offense, too. Russell Wilson would have a wild narrative if that side of the ball catches fire. He's +75000 (BetMGM).
Verdict
Mahomes was +500 before the season, so he's the same odds now despite starting 6-0 against the Ravens, Bengals, and 49ers and despite the MVP field largely disappointing before Jackson's big Monday night game.
Mahomes is set up well with wins and narratives. This looks like the time to add him to your MVP portfolio at +500, buying the dip with the Jackson push.
Jackson is a no bet at this short a number. You do not want to be the MVP favorite in the modern era one-third of the way through the season, and his injury history looms large.
If you don't buy either of the two, Allen and Stroud look playable at their numbers, but I'll pass and take one more crack on Geno Smith at 100-1. He could make the NFC push we've seen now from Purdy and Goff with a couple big wins, and he'd have a tremendous narrative case. too.
