The Baltimore Ravens take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Title Game on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on CBS, with Baltimore currently a 4 or 4.5-point favorite against Kansas City.
Our experts have been tracking their picks all week long ahead of the AFC Championship. For you Ravens fans and backers, here are our best Ravens bets for the AFC title game vs the Chiefs — bets on the spread, total, props and more.
Best Ravens Bets for AFC Title Game vs Chiefs | Spread, Total, Props, More
| Ravens Bets for AFC Title Game | |
|---|---|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
By Action Network PRO Projections
According to the latest NFL odds, Baltimore is between a 3.5- and 4-point favorite depending on the sportsbook.
However, for a short while this line was available at -3 at shops like FanDuel and BetMGM, but big bettors made sure to pound those prices out of the market.
The Action Network's NFL public betting data is reporting that the Ravens have attracted 66% of the money wagered on the spread, but on just 50% of tickets, confirming why oddsmakers have pushed this spread out to -4 and even -4.5.
That king of difference between the percentage of money wagered and the percentage of tickets is one of our key indicators of sharp bets on the side where the money is, making Ravens -3.5 the smart side — and Ravens -4 still has value. You can get Ravens -3.5 juiced at BetRivers or Ravens -4 at multiple other books.
Pick: Baltimore -3.5 | Play to -4
Ravens 1H -2.5
Play to 1H -2.5
By Chris Raybon
The Ravens’ average first-half point differential of +7.9 paces the NFL by nearly two full points, and if you exclude Week 18 — when they were resting starters — that figure jumps to +8.4. This isn’t just small-sample variance, either, as Baltimore is an absurd 50 games over .500 against the first-half spread since John Harbaugh took over in 2008, going 160-110-9 (59%), according to our Bet Labs data.
Investing in the Ravens on the first-half line not only allows you to avoid fading Mahomes and his 9-1-1 career ATS mark as a full-game 'dog, but it also avoids messing with a Chiefs defense that leads the NFL in second-half points per game allowed (7.0).
As far as the first half goes, though? No bueno as of late for the Chiefs, who are just 1-7 ATS in Mahomes’ last eight starts, according to our Action Labs data. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 13-4 (77%) against the first-half number in Jackson’s starts this season, and for his career, he has raised the already skyscraping first-half bar set by Harbaugh, going 51-29-2 (64%) ATS and covering by an average of 2.5 points per game.
Pick: Baltimore 1H -2.5
Over 44.5
Play to 44.5
The initial weather reports for this game on Sunday were suggesting rain in the forecast. Now that the current forecast (as of Tuesday) suggests no rain and just cloudy skies in Baltimore, there’s no reason this total should be below 45. Even if the Ravens are quite slow and methodical offensively, they’re going to score points on the Chiefs' defense and they are more explosive overall than Buffalo’s offense on Sunday.
The Texans sent a ton of blitzes at Jackson and while the Ravens struggled to overcome that early, the offense solved that problem and found the quick hitters to torch Houston in the second half. Jackson’s improved play against the blitz this season should give Chiefs defensive coordinator Spagnoulo pause about bringing a ton of pressure.
Jackson has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, compared to 7.8 when not blitzed. His Pro Football Focus grade is 84 against the blitz and his completion rate is 64.9%.
Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread when lined as an underdog in his career and his aura seems to be propping up the Chiefs in this matchup. You can’t throw out the data from the regular season when Kansas City took a clear step back offensively, but betting on a Mahomes offense getting to at least 20 points is something I’m more than willing to trust.
Baltimore goes up early, runs it well and Mahomes has to try to engineer a comeback against the league’s best defense. That’s a recipe for points and why I’m betting the over on Sunday.
Pick: Total Over 44.5
Isaiah Likely
Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
By Sam Farley
here are expectations that Mark Andrews will waltz himself into the Ravens’ lineup and dominate like he had before the injury. That is possible, but let’s not forget that it was initially thought Andrews’ injury could be career-threatening.
Even with the importance of this game, I don’t think Baltimore will force-feed Andrews, and he may be on the field less than expected.
That bodes well for Isaiah Likely, who has a receiving line of 21.5 yards. In all seven games without Andrews, Likely covered that number quite easily. He’s played very well and I can’t see the team just forgetting how effective he’s been.
Pick: Isaiah Likely Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
Lamar Jackson
Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
Jackson has reached new heights as a passer this season, which has put a little bit of a dent in his overall rushing numbers as he cleared the 60-yard rushing mark in just 5-of-16 regular season outings after averaging over 60 rushing yards per game in four straight campaigns prior to this season.
Make no mistake about it though. He’s still willing to pull it down and run whenever the opportunity presents itself. Jackson recorded 10-plus carries in 7-of-16 regular season outings – and he reminded us of his willingness to run again by rushing 11 times for 100 yards against the Texans..
This line may be 10 yards higher than Jackson's season average, but there’s a good reason for that. It’s all hands on deck against K.C.. I expect to see the Ravens throw the kitchen sink at them from a rushing standpoint.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
Nelson Agholor
Anytime TD +700
A rusher is definitely scoring for the Ravens. That’s the easy part — choosing which one is almost luck at this stage, though, so we can't really put our money on a RB as an ATD scorer for Baltimore in this one.
The best option then is to take long-shot bets like Nelson Agholor at +700 or Isaiah Likely at +400. Agholor leads the Ravens with five TDs against man coverage — the Chiefs play man at a top-five rate. Likely could be a bit of a reach with Mark Andrews expected to return, but to jump from +200 to +400 seems like a bit of an overreaction, especially since we’ve seen Likely have so much success (six TDs in the last six games).
Agholor at +700 is solid value, and you can actually get him as long as +800 at FanDuel as of Saturday evening.
