Ravens vs Titans Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
We start Sunday's NFL Week 6 slate with Ravens vs. Titans odds, which have Baltimore favored by 5.5 points.
Some things never change. The Ravens and Titans being involved in a closely contested game with a low total (42) is on brand for both franchises. Another constant has been Tennessee's performance as an underdog under head coach Mike Vrabel. As a result, the value in this game lies with the team catching points — the Titans, who are +4.5 on the spread.
Let's preview the final London game of the NFL season and make a Ravens vs. Titans pick.
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Ravens vs. Titans
Matchup Analysis
Despite all the offseason talk in Baltimore about opening up the offense, the Ravens still rush the ball at the second-highest rate in the league (50.9%). Of course, those numbers are heavily influenced by the fact that Baltimore boasts one of the greatest running quarterbacks the game has ever seen. After Baltimore's offensive performance last Sunday, it’s difficult to envision a gameplan that doesn’t involve a heavy dose of the rushing attack.
The Ravens' passing attack, mainly the wide receivers, let them down in Pittsburgh. The pass-catchers were credited with seven drops, the most in a game for any team this season. Long story short: Baltimore has to lean on its ground attack at this stage of the season.
However, in this game, that will play right into the strength of the Titans' defense.
Tennessee was uncharacteristically gashed by the running game against the Colts, but that seems like more of an outlier given the history of data we have on the Titans. They rank eighth in total rush defense DVOA through five weeks, but before Week 5, they had only given up 3.1 yards per rush to opposing running backs. In 2022, this team was the top rush defense according to DVOA, which makes me even more comfortable in predicting an extremely stiff test for this version of the Ravens offense.
Bet Baltimore vs. Tennessee at FanDuel
More importantly, when facing the Ravens it's important to limit Jackson's impact in the rushing game.
Thus far, the Titans have only surrendered 26 yards on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. More specifically, they surrendered just 21 yards on six attempts by Deshaun Watson and Anthony Richardson. Going back to the previous two seasons, on only two occasions has a quarterback reached 35 rushing yards against the Titans. Both happen to be Patrick Mahomes, who had six scrambles in each of those contests.
If the Ravens can't rush the ball successfully, it will throw their entire offense off schedule. Once the Ravens are behind the sticks, it will be easier for Tennessee's defense to pressure Jackson.
No quarterback has been affected by pressure more than Jackson. According to Sharp Football, his -39.6% completion when pressured versus kept clean is the largest differential in the league. Jackson’s passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket is 103.4, but when under pressure, that number drops to 58.9. The Titans are 10th in pressure rate (35.7%) and seventh in pass rush win rate (52%).
Ravens vs. Titans
Betting Picks & Predictions
Mike Vrabel's Titans are consistently able to muddy up games and keep them close. Vrabel has covered the spread at a 67.5% clip when catching more than three points over the course of his career.
His quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, has also thrived in the underdog role. When Tannehill has played non-divisional opponents as an underdog, he is a career 34-21-1 (61.8%) against the spread.
On the other hand, the Ravens, with Jackson, have struggled when installed as the favorite. Jackson is 12-17 (41.4%) against the spread outside of the AFC North when laying more than three points. Over the past three years, no quarterback has been worse than Jackson at covering numbers greater than a field goal as a favorite. Jackson’s Ravens have only covered that number twice in 15 games.
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