The Baltimore Ravens (10-5) and Houston Texans (9-6) will face off in NFL Week 17. Kickoff is set for in 4:30 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston. The game will be broadcast exclusively on Netflix.
The Ravens are favored by 6.5 points (-115) with the game total set at 47 points scored. The Ravens are -305 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Texans are +245.
Let's get into my Ravens vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks.
Ravens vs. Texans Predictions
Spread
I'm on the Ravens to cover the spread on Christmas.
I lay out all the trends and reasoning behind my pick in my analysis below.
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total, which sits at 46.5
My Pick: Ravens -5.5
Ravens vs. Texans Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | -305 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | +245 |
- Ravens vs. Texans spread: Ravens -6.5 (-115)
- Ravens vs. Texans over/under: 47 (-110o / -110u)
- Ravens vs. Texans moneyline: Ravens -305, Texans +245
- Ravens vs. Texans best bet: Ravens -5.5 (Caesars)
MyRavens vs. Texans best bet is on Baltimore to cover the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Ravens vs. Texans Same-Game Parlay
By Matthew Trebby
Opposing QBs are averaging six yards per carry this season against Houston.
Texans duo Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter might be the best edge-rushing pair in the NFL, which means Lamar Jackson might be off his spot more often than usual. Chris Raybon projects Jackson for 50 rushing yards.
You can parlay Jackson's rushing over at 44.5 yards at DraftKings with Ravens -5.5 and get a +194 SGP
Ravens-Texans SGP: Ravens -5.5 & Lamar Jackson Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Ravens vs. Texans Betting Trends
- The Ravens have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games.
- The OVER has hit in 6 of the Ravens’ last 8 games.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, although they haven’t done so in either of their last 2.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Texans’ last 8 games.
Ravens vs. Texans Preview
The No. 1 offense (Baltimore) faces the No. 1 defense (Houston), according to DVOA, on Christmas Day. Something’s got to give.
Usually, elite offense beats elite defense, so that’s what I'm betting on here.
Lamar Jackson has been impressive on short rest in his career — he’s 4-1 straight up (SU) when playing on fewer than six days of rest. Jackson is also 26-12-1 against the spread (68%) against teams over .500 in the regular season.
Meanwhile, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has only coached one game on short rest — that was a 21-13 loss to the Jets on Halloween that saw Houston come out very, very flat.
The Ravens struggled against opposing passing offenses early this season, but they're rapidly improving. Since moving Kyle Hamilton back to safety full time, the Ravens are now in the top quarter of the league in DVOA against the pass over the last six weeks — and Houston's disappointing offense isn't exactly lighting the world on fire.
It also helps that the Texans offense usually struggles mightily in the second half. Baltimore has had issues holding onto leads over the past couple of seasons, but that shouldn’t be an issue based on Houston’s second-half offensive efficiency.
Both teams are headed for the playoffs, but don't overlook the drastically different motivations here.
The Texans have already clinched the subpar AFC South and are all but locked into the AFC 4-seed, so this is more of a dress rehearsal at this point before a possible rest week in Week 18. Houston could elect to play its cards close to the vest, especially since the Texans could face the Ravens in the playoffs.
Baltimore still has hope in the AFC North, especially if the Steelers lose earlier on Christmas Day and leave the Ravens in control of their destiny. Baltimore technically still needs a win to clinch its spot in the playoffs.
I’m expecting the Ravens to come out as the more motivated team with more to play for. They’ll also be hoping to get going late in the season entering the playoffs, especially since they won’t have home-field advantage like they did last season.
I played Baltimore -2.5 on the Lookahead before last weekend's games, and this line has been steamed by sharp money all the way to -5.5, through a dead zone once it got past the key numbers.
That could put Baltimore in teaser range if you prefer, but bettors shouldn't be afraid to lay the points and back the Christmas favorite.
My Pick: Ravens -5.5
