Football is back! To celebrate, I have two Ravens vs. Chiefs player props. Let's dive right in!
Ravens vs. Chiefs Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Lamar Jackson
Under 19.5 Completions (-105)
The Ravens rightfully drew a ton of criticism for abandoning the run so early in their AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs last season. It was an odd game plan considering how much of a run-funnel defense the Chiefs had. It seemed like it would set up perfectly for Baltimore.
Tonight, I think the Ravens will overcompensate with a more run-heavy game plan, especially now that Derrick Henry is leading the backfield.
I'm in line with the market on Jackson attempting 30.5 passes tonight, but I think the implied completion percentage of 65% is too high, especially when you consider the kind of game plan that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo usually comes up with to slow Jackson down.
There are four factors that I think could hurt Jackson's completion percentage.
- Jackson's completion percentage against pressure goes down by 16.5% against pressure.
- It goes down 4% against man coverage.
- It goes down 4% on the road.
- It goes down 10% against the blitz.
That last one if key because the Chiefs blitzed Jackson on 43% of snaps in the AFC Championship Game. I went back and watched all of his dropbacks in that game when the Chiefs blitzed. If Jackson sensed pressure, he'd usually throw it deep or even had the pass tipped or batted at the line of scrimmage. If he had a bit more time, he'd usually scramble. Jackson rarely threw a high-percentage checkdown pass, which is key for this prop.
I have Jackson projected closer to 18.5 completions tonight with a 60% chance of staying under 19.5. It's going to be close, though, as I have a 20% chance that he ends with 18 or 19 completions.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 19.5 Completions (-105)
Trenton Simpson
Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
Simpson is a third-round pick from the 2023 draft class. He was considered a second-round talent, though, and was a solid pick with Patrick Queen playing in the last year of his rookie deal last season. Simpson was viewed as Queen's potential replacement, which appears to be the case entering tonight's game since I think the second-year man will see a lot of playing time next to Roquan Smith.
Simpson is an excellent tackler who tends to fly toward the ball carrier. He's getting better in coverage, but I have to imagine that Patrick Mahomes will be targeting the likes of Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice if he sees Simpson covering either of them.
I'm projecting this closer to 8-8.5 tonight and love Simpson's upside.
Pick: Trenton Simpson Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
