The Kansas City Chiefs kick off their Super Bowl title defense on Thursday night against the Baltimore Ravens, as the 2024 NFL season gets started with Ravens vs. Chiefs from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, live at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday night. This rematch of the AFC Championship Game is on NBC and streaming live on Peacock.
With the defending champions once again sending Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of their Super Bowl-winning crew onto the field, the Chiefs are a consensus 3-point favorite on the spread (-3) against the Ravens for Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs are also -150 moneyline favorites, with the Ravens +125 to pull off the slight upset behind Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and new addition Derrick Henry.
Weather Update: Kickoff is going to be delayed until a scheduled 8:39 p.m. ET. A storm at Arrowhead Stadium caused fans and players to leave the stands and field. Players will return to the field at 8 p.m. ET before warming up and pregame ceremonies.
The total is currently at a consensus of over/under 46.5, but there is still a 47 hanging on in the market — and that's key for our Thursday Night Football pick. Let's break down this NFL Week 1 Kickoff Game and get into my Thursday Night Football predictions and my NFL Week 1 picks.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Picks from NFL Expert Sean Koerner
SPREAD
I'm aligned with Chiefs -3 as the most likely outcome for this game, but I lean toward buying the half-point and getting Chiefs -2.5 at -120 (DraftKings) to capture the key number of three. Paying the extra 18 cents to buy the one-half point is worth it here. The Chiefs should be closer to midseason form in Week 1, while the Ravens are dealing with new and shaky pieces on the offensive line and adjusting to a new defensive coordinator.
Having exposure to a win if the Chiefs win by exactly three is even more appealing given that I expect this game to be lower scoring than the market suggests (more on that later).
MONEYLINE
I have no lean or bet for either moneyline.
TOTAL
Despite opening night featuring two of the top offenses in the league, I see several underlying factors that could lead to a lower-scoring game than the market expects.
When the market had bet this total up past the key number of 47 in some spots, I thought it was time to lock in Under 47.5. I would still bet the under at 47, but I do not feel as strongly as I do at 47.5
Use our NFL odds page to find out where that number is available, as there are a healthy mix of 46.5s and 47s at the moment.
PLAYER PROP
Lean: Odafe Oweh Over 0.25 Sacks (+180, DraftKings)
The Chiefs will be starting rookie LT Kingsley Suamataia, who might have a Hall of Fame career but is still a developing player at just 21 years old. He's likely to experience some growing pains this rookie season.
Suamataia will probably be matched up against Oweh when he lines up as part of the pass rush. Oweh is due for positive sack regression according to my sack model. He recorded five sacks last year but was expected to have closer to 8.5 based on his underlying metrics.
Patrick Mahomes is always one of the toughest QBs to sack, with a pressure-to-sack rate of 11%, the third-lowest among qualified QBs last season. However, he tends to be more susceptible to pressure from his LT. According to PFF, Mahomes ranked eighth out of 43 QBs in the percentage of pressure coming from his LT (28%) where he is “responsible." This matchup could be an opportunity for Oweh to capitalize on some of that positive regression.
Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to 47
Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | -148 |
- Ravens vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -3 | Ravens +3
- Ravens vs. Chiefs over/under: 47 total points scored
- Ravens vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chiefs -148 | Ravens +124
How to Watch Thursday Night Football Week 1
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo. |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC |
Week 1 of Thursday Night Football is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET live from Kansas City, Mo. The game is live on NBC and streaming on Peacock and other streaming platforms, such as YouTube TV.
- 66% of bets and 66% of the money are on the Ravens to cover the spread.
- 81% of bets but only 63% of the money are on the over.
- 25% of bets but 68% of the money on the moneyline are on the Ravens to pull off the upset.
Thursday Night Football Week 1
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
The Chiefs offense hit a low point last season, posting the fewest yards and points per game in the Mahomes era. The lack of explosive plays in the passing game was noticeable, and Kansas City aimed to fix that by bringing in Marquise Brown as a proven downfield threat and drafting the lightning-fast Xavier Worthy in the first round. Unfortunately, Brown will miss the opener, so it might take a few weeks for this new-look offense to really click.
Kansas City will be up against a brutal Ravens defense that was the best in the league against the pass last year (first in DVOA). Baltimore did lose defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle, promoting Zachary Orr from within, which could mean some early growing pains, especially against a high-powered offense like the Chiefs. The Ravens infrastructure under John Harbaugh has been rock solid, though, so I wouldn’t expect a huge dip from last season.
Kansas City has its own concerns with rookie Kingsley Suamataia is set to start at left tackle, tasked with protecting Mahomes' blindside, a huge responsibility for a 21-year-old rookie. Some early struggles wouldn’t be surprising, especially against a tough Ravens front.
Additionally, Kansas City signed Samaje Perine to potentially handle some passing-down work. He just joined the team last week, though, and could still be learning the playbook, which raises the risk of missing a pass-blocking assignment.
When the Ravens Have the Ball
The Ravens took a lot of deserved heat for their game plan against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City had a rush-funnel defense that Baltimore was built to exploit, yet they only handed it off to their RBs six times. It looks like they realized their mistake, signing Derrick Henry in the offseason. Don’t be surprised if Baltimore overcorrects here and feeds Henry early and often to set the tone.
It will be fascinating to watch the dynamic between Henry, one of the best RBs of the decade, and Lamar Jackson, the best rushing QB in NFL history. That’s a nightmare for defenses to prep for, but Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has consistently found ways to game plan against the Ravens.
One concern for Baltimore to open the season is the offensive line, which is breaking in two new starters: LG Andrew Vorhees and RG Daniel Faalele.
Vorhees, a seventh-round pick, missed last season recovering from a torn ACL and had a rough preseason, earning the 17th-lowest PFF grade out of 305 qualified linemen. Faalele didn’t fare much better last year, ranking 212th out of 217 OL in pressure rate allowed. That could spell trouble against Chris Jones and the Chiefs' D-line. Jackson didn’t take a snap in the preseason, and camp reports hinted at issues up front. We might see those concerns come to life on opening night.
How to Make NFL Picks on Chiefs vs. Ravens
Both defenses ranked in the top 10 last year (Ravens were first and the Chiefs were seventh) and they look like they're ahead of their team's offense to start the season. The Ravens might struggle with their new offensive line, and the Chiefs defense tends to come up with solid game plans to slow down Jackson. Expect the Ravens to lean heavily on Henry, which would grind the clock and keep the Chiefs offense off the field.
The Chiefs offense should bounce back in a big way this year, but it might not be in full form until Brown makes his debut. Plus, they'll be breaking in a rookie left tackle, which could lead to pressure on Mahomes’ blindside. Kansas City also faces a tough matchup against a stingy Ravens pass defense and may opt for more of a run-heavy approach than usual.
We also have Shawn Hochuli's crew officiating this game, which favors the under. Since 2020, the under has gone 36-27-2 (57%) in his games.
I don't just follow ref trends blindly — I dig into why they occur and how they might apply to the matchup. The Chiefs have ranked in the top five in offensive holding rate every season since 2020, likely by design to protect the best QB in the league, even at the cost of 15-yard penalties. Hochuli’s crew has also ranked in the top five in calling offensive holding each year since 2020, so we could see a few holding calls on the Chiefs. These penalties can be huge swings when rooting for an under.
Once again, 47 is a key number, and with two of the most accurate kickers in NFL history (Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker) the chances of missed extra points or field goals are lower, reducing the risk of getting knocked off key numbers.
Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to 47
