Monday Night Football Week 12 is here, as the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) head west for a pivotal AFC matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3). Kickoff from SoFi Stadium in LA is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and Youtube TV.
Let's get to my Ravens vs. Chargers props and my NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Sam Farley's Ravens vs. Chargers Player Props
- Justin Herbert Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-105, bet365)
- Derrick Henry Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-120, BetMGM)
- Will Dissly Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Justin Herbert Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-105)
The prop that leaps off the screen the most has to be backing Justin Herbert to throw for over 254.5 passing yards. It’s always worth considering betting over the quarterback’s passing yard total when they’re playing the Ravens, with no team in the NFL allowing more yards through the air than the Ravens (284.5 per game).
We know Jim Harbaugh loves to run the ball, but the Ravens are one of the league’s best defensive units at stopping that, so we’re likely to see more Herbert and less J.K. Dobbins. Herbert has averaged 218.6 passing yards per game this season, but that’s largely because of a slow start to the year.
After the Week 5 bye, he’s averaged 268 passing yards per game, and has covered his passing yards line in four of his past five games.
Derrick Henry Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Our second player prop is perhaps the most risky, at least on first viewing, which is for Derrick Henry to have under 18.5 carries. First, we need to remember that while the Ravens are favorites, the line currently has them winning by less than a field goal. This is very much a game that could go either way.
While Henry has been utterly dominant this season, we have seen a marginal drop in his usage, perhaps in part down to game script. He’s only had one 100+ yard rushing game in the past four games and has had under 18.5 carries in four of his last five games. His average across that spell is 15.6 carries per game.
If this game is close, or the Chargers take a lead, then we could see Lamar Jackson’s team focus on the pass, especially with the Chargers being fairly good against the run, ranking 11th in the NFL.
Will Dissly Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
We’ve quietly seen Will Dissly develop a key role in the Chargers’ offense, and he’s benefitted from the team lacking a true alpha wide receiver. Dissly has become somebody that Herbert can rely upon to move the chains and get them upfield, as well as being a safety valve for the quarterback when needed.
Dissly went had four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown last week against the Bengals and has averaged 35.2 yards per game, slightly shy of his total on MNF, but it’s one he should cover.
Nobody in the NFL has allowed more yardage to tight ends per game than the Ravens, who are getting torn apart on a weekly basis. Through 11 games, they’re averaging 66.9 yards per game to the position.
