The Baltimore Ravens (7-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) will face off on NFL Monday Night Football tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Ravens are favored by 3 points over the Chargers (Ravens -3) with the game total set at 51 points scored. The Ravens are -155 on the moneyline favorites to win outright and the Chargers are +130 to pull off the upset.
My Ravens vs. Chargers prediction is on the over/under. I see signs of a high-scoring game between two potential AFC contenders.
The Ravens are coming off their bye week but lost their previous game against the Steelers. Lamar Jackson is playing like an MVP with 25 passing TDs and 3 INTs so far this season. The Chargers have won 4 straight after beating the Bengals 34-27 last Sunday night. Justin Herbert exceled with 297 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, while J.K. Dobbins ran 2 more in.
Ravens vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Game Total
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 51 -110o / -110u | +130 |
- Ravens vs. Chargers Spread: Ravens -3 (-115)
- Ravens vs. Chargers Total: Over/Under 51 points scored
- Ravens vs. Chargers Moneyline: Ravens -150, Chargers +125
- Ravens vs. Chargers Prediction: Over 50.5 (ESPN BET, FanDuel)
My Ravens vs. Chargers pick is on the over. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I project this spread at Ravens -2.5, so I'll pass on betting either side. I am also not going to bet either team's moneyline in this game.
Moneyline
Like the spread, I'm passing on the moneyline.
Ravens vs. Chargers Prediction
Over/Under
While I don't like either side, I do fancy the total.
Both offenses have great matchups in this game. The Chargers are equipped to attack a pass-funnel Ravens defense, while the Chargers' inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks should lead to a big game for Lamar Jackson.
Those massive edges should lead to a plethora of big plays, which are ideal for an over. I like this bet at anything below the key number of 51, which is available at ESPN BET or FanDuel as of 6:20 p.m. ET.
My Pick: Over 50.5
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Preview
There's a ton of familiarity in this particular matchup, but not just when it comes to the head coach battle. Jim hired Jesse Minter and Greg Roman as his two coordinators, and they both used to work under John in Baltimore. I'm personally fascinated to watch the chess match as a result.
The Ravens' defense has issues, ranking 21st in EPA per play coming into the week. The unit isn't as strong after an offseason defensive staff talent drain with the losses of Mike Macdonald, Anthony Weaver and Dennard Wilson, all of whom are running NFL defenses this season. Pre-snap looks and in-game adjustments have suffered, and miscommunication and coverage busts have increased.
Baltimore excels at slowing down opposing ground games but continues to struggle against the pass, especially deep and over the middle of the field, where it ranks in the bottom three in the league. Just take a look at the overall splits against both. The Ravens are second in EPA and Success Rate against the run but 29th in EPA and 19th in Success Rate against the pass.
That would seem like a positive against Greg Roman's run-first offense, but the Chargers, who have started to really increase their passing rates, are more than capable of exploiting Baltimore's secondary.
Justin Herbert is playing at an MVP level and now has a healthier group of weapons on the outside. While L.A. plays at a methodical pace, I expect a pass-heavy approach that ultimately leads to plenty of explosive plays, which are what I'm looking for when betting an over in today's NFL.
Baltimore's defense ranks in the bottom five in that department, while the Los Angeles offense ranks in the top five. The Ravens also struggle to generate consistent pressure, which means Herbert should work often from a clean pocket, with which he's lethal.
It's also worth mentioning the Ravens defense won't be at full strength with injuries along an already thin defensive line, and they might be without stud linebacker Roquan Smith.
On the other side of the ball, Baltimore brings in a historically dominant offense that should bounce back after struggling last week against the Steelers.
The Chargers defense has great surface metrics, ranking fourth in both EPA per play and Success Rate. However, it has benefited from facing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to date. In fact, the Chargers have played the league's easiest schedule through 11 weeks, per my numbers, so I believe they come in significantly overrated and aren't completely healthy to boot.
The Chargers can't generate pressure and tend to sit back in zones, which spells doom against Lamar Jackson, who should have all day to do damage. That should lead to a plethora of explosive plays, which we could also see on the ground — as L.A. has given up way too many big rushing plays from an otherwise dominant rush defense.
The Ravens have historically dominated in the first half under Lamar Jackson. If that trend continues, Baltimore will jump out to a lead early, which should push the Chargers into an even heavier pass script against a vulnerable secondary that has had issues holding onto leads all season. If the opposite comes to fruition, there's no reason why Jackson couldn't do the same.
My Pick: Over 50.5
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