The Baltimore Ravens (7-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) face off on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., live on ESPN.
Our Ravens vs. Chargers picks and Monday Night Football best bets are against the spread, on the over/under and a Lamar Jackson player prop.
The Ravens are 3-point favorites over the Chargers at DraftKings with the game total set at over/under 51 points at most sportsbooks. Baltimore is -155 on the moneyline and Los Angeles is +130.
John Harbaugh is 2-0 in the head-to-head battle against his brother, but Jim Harbaugh's Chargers enter this game on a 4-game winning streak. Lamar Jackson is playing like an MVP with 25 passing touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, but Justin Herbert has this Los Angeles offense starting to roll.
Ravens vs. Chargers Predictions
- Pick Against the Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under Prediction: Under 51 (-112)
- NFL Player Prop: Lamar Jackson Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Ravens vs. Chargers Odds
Odds via DraftKings.
- Spread: Ravens -3 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 51 (-108 / -112)
- Moneylines: Ravens -155, Chargers +130
Ravens vs. Chargers Pick Against the Spread
Backing John Harbaugh on the road has proven to be profitable endeavor. Throughout the entirety of his coaching career, betting on the Ravens when they are the road team has netted an ROI greater than 10% over 130-plus games.
When Baltimore takes to the road after a loss under Harbaugh, it is 18-11 (62.1%) against the number. The Ravens with Lamar Jackson under center have been in this specific scenario five times — they have covered four times.
While I do not doubt the talents of Justin Herbert, his team is likely to be feature a one-dimensional offense in this game.
The Ravens' rush defense is elite against the run. They boast a 65% rush defense success rate, meaning the Chargers offense — which is built around their rushing attack — may struggle to put Herbert in advantageous down-and-distance situations.
Only 5.2% of runs against the Ravens have resulted in 10-plus-yard gains, which is the lowest rate in the NFL. It will be entirely on the shoulders of the Chargers' passing game to move the sticks on Monday Night Football.
The Ravens' passing attack tends to struggle against defenses that are more willing to be aggressive on the back end in coverage.
The Chargers do not usually challenge the passing game in this manner, playing more passively and featuring the league's highest rate of Cover 4 . Lamar Jackson has a passer rating of 116.9 against quarters coverage this season, according to Sharp Football.
Everything is lining up for a Baltimore bounce-back performance. I am comfortable playing them at -2.5 juiced to -120 or better, or at -3 at -110 odds.
Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-110)
Ravens vs. Chargers Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
This total rose throughout the week after opening as low as 47. BetMGM is now all the way up to 51, the first (and so far, only) major book to move the total that high.
While we're tracking more of the money on the over in our Pro Report (available to Action PRO subscribers), my suspicion is most of that money came in on a lower number. Our Pro projections make the right line 49.9, which suggests most of the over money came in when the total was still in the 40s.
From an on-field standpoint, the Chargers have the league's No. 1 scoring defense. Both defensive units rank above average in terms of Defensive DVOA, and I'm projecting a tough matchup for the Chargers' offensive line in both the running and passing games.
The Chargers also play slowly, ranking fourth in seconds per snap in the NFL. While they've pivoted to throwing the ball more since their bye week, they're still taking their time.
That helps explain why Los Angeles has been in just one game that surpassed 44 points this year — last week's 34-27 win against the Bengals. While Baltimore's defense is allowing plenty of passing production this season, it has a much better defense than the Bengals.
That makes it hard to see the Chargers putting up another big score in the Harbaugh Bowl.
Keep an eye on this line before making a bet. It could tick a bit higher before game time, so I’ll be waiting as long as possible before making the bet.
Pick: Under 51 (-110)
Ravens vs. Chargers Player Prop: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson hasn't been using his legs much in the last few weeks, but there is no reason to think that should continue.
He's hit the over at this number in 8-of-11 games this season, and regardless of the matchup, the Ravens will design plays for him to run the ball.
This game has a close spread (2.5 points) and the Chargers have been an above-average matchup for opposing dual-threat QBs this season.
Given the high total and the good play of Justin Herbert recently, this is likely going to be a high-scoring and close game.
I project over a 60% chance of Jackson going over 43.5 rushing yards, making this a great bet.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
