Joshua Kelley
Under 5.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Josh Kelley has seven receiving yards this season. And that’s including the three starts he made while Austin Ekeler was out earlier in the season.
With Ekeler back, Kelley is seeing an average routes run rate of 27%. That’s going to be nine or 10 routes run for him tonight against the Bears.
Kelley has only been targeted on just 4.5% of his routes this season. In fact, Justin Herbert has targeted his RBs at a league-low rate of just 10% on the season.
The clearest path for this prop to hit is for Kelley to fail to catch a single target tonight. I’m projecting those odds to be roughly a 46% chance.
Even if Kelley does secure a pass, he’s not a lock to go over. In fact, I’m still giving this a 52% chance to stay under if he catches one pass.
Note: He's yet to catch a pass that has gone six or more yards this season, but I’m using a more normal distribution for him. Therefore, I’m getting about a 64% chance he stays under this.
