The Bears and Patriots are expected by the public to underperform market projections this season.
That data is according to BetMGM, which said the two teams were the most popular teams for unders in the win total market.
The Bears in particular are the most popular ticket, according to BetMGM. That's on account of lofty expectations. This is the team that ranked in the top-three in defensive DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) over the last half of the 2023 season — a mark that likely saved coach Matt Eberflus' job.
And they received the No. 1 overall pick not on account of necessarily being a bad team — it's because they astutely traded out of the same pick the season before, where the Panthers traded up to select Bryce Young, who hasn't looked the part so far in his short career. The premium involved a 2023 first round pick, which of course ended up as the No. 1 overall pick.
The Bears used their real pick — the No. 9 overall pick — to boost their underwhelming offense, selecting explosive Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze to pair with their new Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Caleb Williams.
On account of the hype, BetMGM opened the Bears' win total at 8.5, with the juice at -110 both ways. Despite the public action, that line has moved to +135 on publish. That indicates while big moneyed bettors are hitting the over, smaller bettors are all-in on the Bears to underperform.
The Bears to go under 8.5 wins is the most popular under at the sportsbook.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are a team in flux — and don't figure to be good this season. Still, even with an incredibly low win total of 5.5, the public has pounced. The Patriots to go under 5.5 wins represent the second-most win total under and is the highest in total handle for the market.
