The Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers will face off at Heinz Field for Monday Night Football.
The public expects two mediocre offenses to play a grinding, run-heavy set all night. The total for this game is a historically-low 39.5 as a result.
The next lowest total for a primetime game this season was a Sunday Night Football affair between the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers, which closed at 41.5. But that one had a catch — they were playing in 15-20 miles per hour gusts and torrential rain.
It took a monsoon to bring the total down to 41.5, and yet the public still expects Pittsburgh and Chicago to score fewer points.
As a result of this dynamic, bettors love Steelers running back Najee Harris for this one.
Bears v. Steelers Most Popular NFL Player Props
- Najee Harris to score the first touchdown of the game (+400)
- Najee Harris to record more than 79.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Ben Roethlisberger to record more than 300 passing yards (+260)
Rankings and odds are according to BetMGM as of Monday morning.
Harris has scored the first touchdown in one of his seven career games — during a 23-20 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football.
That rate implies odds of about +600.
Because this type of prop can’t be properly modeled from a value perspective, I tend to stay away as a whole. That, plus the 33% drop off in implied value, steers me toward a no bet.
The second prop is definitely worth a sprinkle, though.
The Bears rank ninth-worst in the NFL against the rush, according to Football Outsiders.
Pittsburgh will start the game pounding the rock heavy. And if it's successful and they take a lead? They'll be forced to keep running the ball.
Since the Steelers transitioned to a man-blocking scheme earlier this season, Harris has averaged 98 rushing yards per game.
All-Pro Bears defender Khalil Mack will also be out for this one.
All signs point toward this prop and its value.
A note that PointsBet and DraftKings have the same 79.5 rushing yard value for this prop. FanDuel lists the bet at O/U 82.5 yards.
