Bears vs Chargers Best Bets | Sunday Night Football Picks Tonight
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
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Starting with a pick against the spread, here are our Bears vs Chargers Best Bets and Sunday Night Football picks tonight for Week 8.
Our NFL best bets also feature a scoring prop, in addition to that Sunday Night Football pick against the spread. And we round out our Bears vs Chargers best bets and betting preview with a player prop for your SNF bets.
Sunday Night Football Picks Tonight
Bears vs. Chargers
Justin Herbert has a losing record against the spread at home over the course of his career and I don't expect that to change Sunday night. The Chargers struggle to win with a margin for a couple of reasons. First, Brandon Staley's teams, regardless of the play caller, opt for a conservative game plan once they take the lead. In their only game this season in which they jumped out to an early lead, Herbert attempted a season-low 24 passes. That won't change with an abundance of injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
Secondly, the Chargers can't stop the run and allow teams to sustain drives far too often. The Chargers defense is 23rd in rush defense DVOA, but more specifically, they're allowing teams to average 7.0 yards per play on first down, which ranks 31st in the league. According to Sharp Football, opposing offenses are averaging 38 yards per offensive possession against this defense, which also ranks 31st in the NFL.
Even Tyson Bagent can operate an efficient offense against a Chargers defense that surrenders a first down or touchdown every 3.0 plays. The clock will be constantly running in this game as both teams will opt for shorter throws to go along with their ground attack. Without the Chargers wanting to keep their foot on the gas pedal, the Bears can keep the score close.
I'd bet Chicago down to +8, but in even better news, this line is moving in our direction. You can now get Bears +9.5 at most books.
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Bears vs. Chargers
By Billy Ward
Before we dig into the math on this game, it's helpful to establish some baseline knowledge on the distribution of points in NFL games.
League-wide, teams are averaging 11.32 points in the first halves of games but just 10.18 in the second. However, that's largely due to the league's top teams in first-half scoring — Miami, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco — playing from so far in front that they don't need to score in the second half.
When you remove those four from the sample size, the numbers are roughly equal between the halves, with clock-killing by leading teams balanced out by more aggressive play in the final two minutes.
The biggest factor of the analysis is how both teams approach the game from a pace-of-play standpoint. Chicago wants to be a running team that controls the ball and plays more than three seconds slower than average when the game is within seven points. However, once the Bears fall behind, they pick things up considerably. When trailing by eight or more, they play more than two seconds faster than average.
On the Chargers side of things, they stick to their pass-heavy, uptempo approach regardless of the scoreboard. They rank second in pace of play when leading by at least seven and are eighth in situation-neutral pace.
With the Chargers favored by 8.5, it's fairly likely that the second half will be mostly spent with the Bears chasing points and significantly speeding this game up. The Chargers' 28th-ranked passing defense also increases the chances Chicago finds success while playing catch up.
Those factors are enough that I'm willing to lay the juice at -115 on the second half, which I would play down to -120.
Pick: Highest-Scoring Half: Second -115
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Bears vs. Chargers
It looks like Tyson Bagent will start again this week, and that really isn't a bad thing for Moore.
I'm really not sure if Bagent is a downgrade from Justin Fields, but he certainly isn't a downgrade for the passing game. Bagent looked solid in his first outing and targeted Moore on nine of his 29 passing attempts.
Moore has been the focal point of this offense with eight or more targets in each of the past four weeks. He has five touchdowns through seven games, and all five of those have come in the past five games.
The Bears were a little conservative last week with Bagent but with one week under his belt, I expect him to throw the ball more in a matchup that has them as 8.5-point underdogs. I have the true odds here around +160, making this a solid bet.
Pick: D.J. Moore Anytime Touchdown (+220)
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