Bears vs. Commanders Most Valuable TNF Prop Bets: Sam Howell, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore

Bears vs. Commanders Most Valuable TNF Prop Bets: Sam Howell, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore article feature image
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Bears vs. Commanders Odds

Bears Logo
Thursday, Oct. 5
8:15 p.m. ET
Prime Video
Commanders Logo
Bears Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+6
-110
44.5
-110o / -110u
+215
Commanders Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-6
-110
44.5
-110o / -110u
-260
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
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The Action Network's proprietary betting algorithms have selections for Bears vs. Commanders on Thursday Night Football.

My colleague Sean Koerner also has a thesis regarding the Bears' No. 1 wide receiver and his prospects. That represents the best pick for tonight's game.

Bears vs Commanders Player Prop: Expert Backs This DJ Moore Market Image

The other picks are on Commanders quarterback Sam Howell — but it's not bullish on his outlook tonight — and Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin.

Our algorithms for Bears vs. Commanders are developed by our predictive analytics team, which make empirical predictions on every game with value and have created popular benchmark statistics like the Luck Rankings.

We wrote earlier today about the public's favorite picks, which involves D.J. Moore, Brian Robinson and Khalil Herbert.

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Bears vs. Commanders Most Valuable Prop Bets

  1. D.J. Moore longest reception over 22.5 yards (-111)
  2. Sam Howell to throw one or more interceptions (+110)
  3. Terry McLaurin under 60.5 receiving yards (-104)
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Bears vs. Commanders

Where's The Value?

Koerner opines that Moore projects to put up about 24.5, on average, for his longest reception of the night. He assesses a 60% chance that he goes over 22.5 yards, which means a 7.4% betting edge relative to a vig of -111 at Caesars.

Meanwhile, Howell is projected to put up at least an interception, on average, when these two teams meet under these conditions. At a +110 vig, that's a roughly 2.4% betting edge at BetMGM.

And McLaurin's receiving yards are projected at 53.5 yards, on average. The best market price exists at Caesars.

About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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