These picks are correlated in that if we can expect the game to play out as the spread indicates, it should be a hit.
The Commanders have been big favorites twice in the first five weeks of the season because they’ve played the Cardinals (Week 1) and now the Bears.
So, we’re going to find a play here that would go in favor of the Commanders leading and winning the game and Chicago playing from behind.
Khalil Herbert
More Than 12.5 Receiving Yards
Khalil Herbert took over the Bears' backfield in Week 4, featuring on 78% of Chicago’s offensive plays in the loss to the Broncos.
This came as a surprise since rookie Roschon Johnson saw his snap percentage increase in each of the first three weeks to 45%, only to plummet to 22% on Sunday.
Two props for Herbert stand out: rush attempts and receiving yards.
I’m hesitant to bet on Herbert’s rush attempts because he has only gone over the 11.5 total once this season, and he may not see 78% of snaps on a short week with a capable RB in Johnson behind him. Herbert was extremely effective, though, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 18 totes.
Instead, I’m going to take more than 12.5 receiving yards.
Herbert has gone over this total in three of four games. He’s seen at least three targets in four games, which would be enough for him to hit this over.
Herbert has caught 10 of 15 targets this season for 8.3 yards per reception. With a negative average depth of target, it’s reasonable to assume that 67% catch rate is sustainable. So, multiple catches should lead us to a win on this prop.
Terry McLaurin
Less Than 7.5 Receiving Targets
It should be a bit of a surprise to hear that McLaurin has only gone above this total once this season, and that was in a high-scoring matchup last week against the Eagles.
Otherwise, McLaurin’s targets were four-six-six to start the 2023 season.
McLaurin is no longer the sure-fire No. 1 receiver in Washington. Jahan Dotson has 25 targets this season to McLaurin’s 26. Days of him being force-fed the ball are over.
Also, if Washington is in control of this game, it’ll lean on the run game. Brian Robinson Jr. will be very active with Antonio Gibson and rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. being sprinkled in.
