Editor's note: The Lions are expected to start third-string quarterback David Blough.
Bears at Lions Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Odds: Bears -5.5
- Over/Under: 37
- Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday morning.
Jeff Driskel has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, which means third-string quarterback David Blough will get the start for the Detroit Lions. The news has moved the Chicago Bears from 3- to 5.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under falling to 37. But is there still value on either line?
Our experts analyze every angle of this NFC North matchup from a betting perspective, complete with a staff pick.
Bears-Lions Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Lions
The Lions’ biggest injury is obviously Driskel. But another to monitor is cornerback Rashaan Melvin (ribs), who was a late add to the injury report last week and ended up missing their game. He still hasn’t resumed practicing.
Meanwhile, neither of the Chicago’s tight ends — Ben Braunecker (concussion) and Adam Shaheen (foot) — have practiced this week. Other players who haven’t practiced include Taylor Gabriel (concussion), along with linebacker Danny Trevathan (elbow) and right tackle Bobby Massie (ankle). The Bears said Gabriel and Braunecker are both unlikely to play. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Bears Defense vs. Lions Offense
If you’re the type to plan your Thanksgiving festivities around football, consider making it an early dinner, because the Lions offense is shaping up to be must-fade TV at 12:30 p.m. ET.
If you can’t help yourself, you’ll be treated to a Lions offense quarterbacked by Blough with practice-squad/couch-dweller Bo Scarbrough as the lead ballcarrier. This against a Bears defense that’s allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (17.1) and is ranked sixth in schedule-adjusted efficiency, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
In the first meeting between these two teams back in Week 10, a Driskel-led Lions attack mustered all of 13 points despite running 75 offensive plays in a 20-13 defeat. What makes the Bears defense particularly tough for an inexperienced quarterback is that even if that quarterback can manage the game well and stay ahead of the chains on early downs, it’s tough to sustain drives on Chicago, which ranks No. 4 in the NFL in third-down conversion rate allowed (32.9%).
With the Matt Nah-gy led, Mitch False-bisky helmed Bears offense also banged up and struggling, this game has late-in-the-year divisional under scribbled all over it.— Chris Raybon
Expert Picks
Raybon: Under 39
As mentioned, the Lions offense is in dire straits starting a replacement-level QB against a top-six defense.
Meanwhile, over the past five weeks, the Bears have faced three defenses ranked inside the bottom-24 in DVOA — Chargers, 25th; Lions, 24th; Giants, 27th — yet the most points Chicago has mustered in a game over that span is 20. In fact, the Bears' last five games have each fallen short of the current total: A 17-16 loss to the Chargers, 22-14 loss to the Eagles, 20-13 win over the Lions, 17-7 loss to the Rams and a 19-14 win over the Giants.
I got this at 39 but would bet it down to 37. Follow me in the Action Network App to get alerts for my picks in real time.
