I have three NFL props for the first of three games on Thanksgiving, and they're all on one side.
My Bears-Lions player props are two overs and under on the Chicago offense. I'm backing recent trends and our expert projections this week with my bets on the Bears.
Bears vs. Lions Player Props
- D.J. Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-125, bet365)
- Cole Kmet Under 3.5 Receptions +105, DraftKings)
- Caleb Williams Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125, DraftKings)
DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)
DJ Moore has gone over this total in each of the Bears’ last two games since Shane Waldron was removed as offensive coordinator.
Moore has a 100% catch rate over his last two games with seven catches in losses to the Packers and Vikings. If he gets seven more targets here, I like his chances of getting at least five catches.
Moore’s average depth of target this season is 8.2 yards, which means he’s not seeing most of his targets down the field. They’re usually high-percentage throws from Caleb Williams.
That has clearly been a priority for Williams under new play-caller Thomas Brown. His completion percentages in the last three games with Waldron were 41.7%, 53.7% and 53.3%, while they’ve been 74.2% and 68.1% with Brown.
Chris Raybon’s initial Week 13 projections have Moore pegged for five receptions, so I’m going to back his over here.
Cole Kmet Under 3.5 Receptions (+105)
A big reason for this under is that the Lions are first in DVOA against opposing tight ends this season. That’s an easy place to start for this bet.
Prior to last week’s loss to the Vikings, Cole Kmet had gone under this total in four straight games. He didn’t even see a target in one of those losses.
Last week, he saw 10 targets and hauled in seven catches for 64 yards. Two of those came on the Bears’ first drive of the game, though, and three were on a fourth-quarter drive when they were down 14 points.
When the Bears offense is not facing a pass-heavy script, Kmet is the fourth option and not hugely involved. Naturally, Chicago could be facing a huge deficit here that forces it to throw more than anticipated, but I’ll take that risk.
Sean Koerner projects Kmet for 3.3 receptions, so I’d play this under to -110.
Caleb Williams Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
Something that’s clear from Brown’s first two games as the Bears’ play-caller: Caleb Williams isn’t taking too many risks. He hasn’t turned the ball over in either game and is relying on his legs instead of standing in the pocket and forcing something.
Williams has gone over this total in each of the Bears’ last two games with nine carries against the Packers and six against the Vikings. He’s relying more on his athleticism instead of hoping something miraculously opens up in the pocket.
Raybon has Williams projected for 6.2 rush attempts against the Lions. Expect him to be under pressure plenty in a loud environment, which will cause him to get on the move quickly.
