It's December. It's Green Bay. It's some classic Bears vs. Packers NFC North action. Would anyone be happy if the forecast for Sunday wasn't absolutely freezing?
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like snow is in the cards like it is in Kansas City, so viewers at home won't get that winter atmosphere just by watching on the couch. Those brave enough to attend may regret their decision though, as temperatures will fail to reach 20 degrees.
Odds as of Sunday at 1 a.m. ET and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Let's take a detailed look at the Bears vs. Packers weather forecast at Lambeau Field and what it means for NFL bettors.
Bears vs. Packers Weather Forecast
At kickoff, the temperature will be just 16 degrees with a wind chill of six. Typically, players and fans prefer wind chills that don't need to be written out with letters to be grammatically correct.
With that in mind, bettors should just hammer the under, right?
It's not that simple.
Pet Bet Labs, taking the over in games with temperatures below freezing has been profitable historically.
- Over record below 32 degrees: 110-85-3 (56.4%)
The market likely assumes teams will struggle to score in the cold weather, but wind, not temperature, is the element they need to be concerned about. The 8 mph winds expected for this game are a bit below the 10 mph threshold for taking windy unders, but it's possible those numbers tick up before kickoff.
Also worth noting is the fact that the results are wildly different when looking at division vs. non-division games. As you may know, divisional unders thrive late in the season. That holds true regardless of cold temperatures.
- Freezing overs in non-division games: 70-37-1 (65.4%)
- Freezing overs in division games: 40-48-2 (45.5%)
With all this said, the over/under for this game, which opened at 41, has fallen to 40.5 or 40 depending on the book. While the over is getting 58% of bets, it's the under that's getting 58% of the cash.
The under has also seen a Steam Move, suggesting sharps are ignoring this cold weather trend and banking on the fact that these two familiar divisional foes will stymie each other in a defensive showdown.
