Bears vs. Patriots Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | +320 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | -405 |
Bears vs. Patriots Picks
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Brandon Anderson: On one hand, the Patriots are absolutely overvalued right now after wins over the Lions (29-0) and Browns (38-15) that weren't nearly as one-sided as the scorelines indicate. It will be time to fade New England soon.
On the other hand, that time is definitely not against Justin Fields and this ugly Bears offense.
You simply can’t play a one-dimensional offense and get away with it against Bill Belichick. He’s too good at taking away the only thing you’re good at, forcing teams to play his way, and sucking the life out of helpless opponents. The Bears only want to run; Belichick won’t let them. And since Chicago can’t pass block, that’s all she wrote.
Bears +8.5 | Patriots -8.5
Is this an overreaction line move after another big Pats win? Yes, absolutely. But there’s no way I’m backing Fields here, now 4-9 (29%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog and 1-4 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown.
This would be a bet when it gets under a TD. Unfortunately, the books know that too. It’s a great teaser spot for New England, and you can also avoid the -8 by just playing a Patriots first-half cover.
New England's defense ranks second in first-half DVOA, and the Bears rank last. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in the first half.
Belichick will end this early.
As of Monday at 12:30 p.m. ET, WynnBet was offering Patriots -3.5 in the first half at -125. I'd jump on that number if possible, but would also play -4.
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John LanFranca: After the Patriots shut out the Lions and limited the Browns to 4.9 yards per play, it is appearing more likely this defense is one of the league's best.
Bill Belichick has famously implemented a defensive game plan each week (for decades) to limit his opponents' offensive strengths. The Bears’ only real strength is their running game, as no team runs the ball at a higher rate.
Chicago’s offensive line isn't nearly as strong as the Patriots’ last two opponents, and this defense turned in a top-three DVOA performance in both outings.
Belichick is 12-6-1 ATS as a favorite of a TD or more since 2019, winning 17 of those games straight up. This is not a good situational spot for the Bears.
To make matters worse, if the Bears are able to move the ball down the field, they'll have to rely on the league's lowest-rated red-zone passer in Justin Fields. Running the ball into the end zone won't be effective either, since the Patriots haven't surrendered a rushing touchdown to a running back all season.
I don't expect the Bears to reach the end zone more than once. I'd play this pick down to 14.5.
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Billy Ward: Jones is set to return for the Patriots tonight, but as of Monday morning there are still questions about his status. There are even rumblings that he could potentially split time with Bailey Zappe, and a late scratch wouldn't be a shock either.
Even if Jones plays the full game, this is a fairly high line against the Bears. Chicago has faced the lowest opponent pass play rate in the league at 46.56%. That's translated to just 27.5 opponent pass attempts per game.
Only once has an opponent gone over 28.5 pass attempts in a win over the Bears. That was the Vikings, who were playing from behind in the fourth quarter. New England is favored by eight points, so it should have a positive game script for most of this game.
This should also be a slow-paced affair, with New England ranking 31st in overall pace and the Bears 20th. While 28.5 passing attempts is a very low number for a starting quarterback, it's probably a coin flip at worst under normal circumstances.
When you build in the possibility of Zappe handling some snaps and/or the Patriots managing Jones' workload, that gives us enough of an edge to make the under worth playing.
