Two young quarterbacks face off in this Monday Night Football matchup, as Justin Fields takes on either Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe.
Jones is expected to start for New England, but it’s not decisive. As a result, New England’s offense may be hard to project. It’s also impossible to predict whether Rhamondre Stevenson or Damien Harris will get the lion’s share of carries, although it’s trending toward the former.
But we’ve predicted a game script that projects value on two Chicago player props. We can take advantage of these player props by using PrizePicks, which allows us to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states – including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here’s my PrizePicks card for Monday Night Football.
David Montgomery
Over/Under 52.5 Rushing Yards
If you want more comprehensive analysis of this prop, check out Stuckey’s Monday Night Football game guide.
However, this prop is available on PrizePicks, so allow me to break it down for you.
The Patriots are a cornerback factory. Despite losing Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in back-to-back seasons, head coach Bill Belichick has quickly rebuilt his secondary.
New England has PFF’s first- and eighth-graded cornerbacks in the NFL (among CBs with at least 60 coverages) in Jack Jones and Jonathan Jones, respectively.
Thanks to those two, plus a deep safety core and a front seven that’s top 10 in pressure rate, the Patriots are third in dropback EPA per play and sixth in pass defense DVOA.
All in all, this is one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
What does this have to do with David Montgomery?
The Bears can’t throw the ball. Justin Fields is the least accurate quarterback in the league, partly due to a horrendous offensive line and a bad wide receiving corps. Nobody has a higher rush rate (58.8%) or lower pass rate over expectation (PROE) percentage (-15.8%) than Chicago.
Belichick can load up the box to stop the run while trusting his corners and safeties to dominate in single coverage, stopping Montgomery at the point of attack and preventing him from consistent production.
The Patriots pulled similar stunts off against Detroit and Cleveland, two teams with quarterbacks who aren’t elite passers (Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett). As a result, the Patriots held Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Jamaal Williams under their rushing yards total.
Montgomery has only hit over 52.5 rush yards in two of his five games this season.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Montgomery for 51 rush yards, giving us enough value to follow through with our matchup prediction.
Pick: Under 52.5 Rushing Yards
Justin Fields
Over/Under 7.5 Rush Attempts
Fields can’t throw the ball, but he can run it. His rushing ability has been the only effective part of this Bears offense.
With the Patriots negating Chicago’s passing attack on the outside and its rushing attack in the box, the Bears' only chance to move the ball will be with Fields' legs.
Belichick spoke about Fields’ athleticism and rushing ability last week.
Taking a look at Justin Fields and the Bears offense.
BB previews #CHIvsNE on the Belestrator. pic.twitter.com/juQQU1XMqD
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 20, 2022
Fields has hit over 7.5 rushing attempts in every game except Week 4 against the Giants, when he finished with seven. He picked up 12 rushing attempts against Washington last week.
Additionally, this is the Action Labs Player Props Tool's biggest edge of the week. We project Fields for 9.2 rushing attempts.
Pick: Over 7.5 Rush Attempts
