Monday Night Football features Bears vs. Patriots, two teams that both have a pair of talented running backs.
David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are a capable pair in Chicago, although they don't have much else to work with on offense right now, while Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson complement each other well in a Patriots offense that's getting its starting QB back, reportedly, tonight.
Bears +8.5 | Patriots -8.5
We're going to back one RB on each team tonight. It might not be each team's Week 1 starter, but it's the one who has looked better since the start of the season.
These picks have been made using Sean Koerner's expert projections at Action Labs.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Damien Harris is expected back in the Patriots backfield, but that shouldn’t matter much for Stevenson’s workload. He’s proven he can, and should, be the lead back in New England.
Stevenson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season and has three rushing touchdowns, with two coming in his start last week against the Browns.
On the ground, Stevenson has been great. Through the air, he’s also been very good, which is where our money will be on Monday night. Even though Harris is back, Stevenson will see the bulk of snaps in passing situations.
Stevenson has gone over this receiving total in each of his last four games, two of which were started by Mac Jones.
The Bears only have allowed 22 receptions in six games to opposing running backs this season, so this pick isn’t about the matchup, really. It’s more a way to find value in Stevenson.
Our Action Labs projections have Stevenson at 18.1 receiving yards for this game. BetRivers has the best odds for Over 13.5 at -115, while BetMGM is -120.
Khalil Herbert
Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
Khalil Herbert has been so good this season that it’s worth wondering if he’s better than David Montgomery.
The current Bears starter is a free agent after this season, which means there’s a chance Herbert will get a chance to be the Chicago RB1 soon. For now, he’ll keep thriving in smaller spells.
In the four games Montgomery has played this season, Herbert has gone over this total three times. In those games, he has 168 rushing yards on 24 carries, an average of exactly seven yards per carry. Including his two starts, Herbert is averaging 6.4 yards per tote.
Then there’s the Bears’ matchup against a Patriots defense that is just 26th in Rush DVOA. Put it all together, and Herbert should thrive if he gets the carries he deserves.
Herbert will only need five carries to cover this according to his season average, although that’s ambitious to assume. Given how offensively challenged the Bears are, expect them to find ways to get Herbert involved as much as possible, especially on the ground.
Action Labs projects Herbert for 37 rushing yards on Monday Night Football. BetMGM has the best odds on Over 31.5 at -115.
