Bears at Rams Odds & Picks
- Odds: Rams -6
- Over/Under: 40
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
Public bettors aren't high on the Los Angeles Rams, who are coming off a road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only 41% of tickets are backing Sean McVay's squad to cover as 6-point favorites against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
But what do our experts think?
Our staff breaks down every angle of this primetime showdown, featuring analysis of the biggest matchups and picks.
Bears-Rams Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Rams
The Rams have only two players listed as questionable: tight ends Gerald Everett (wrist) and Tyler Higbee (knee). Sean McVay said he expects both to play. Also of note: Cooper Kupp did miss Friday’s practice with an illness, but wasn’t listed on their injury report.
The Bears already ruled out linebacker Danny Trevathan (elbow), which is good news for the Rams’ backfield since he leads their team in tackles and stops, per Pro Football Focus. David Montgomery also has a chance of missing after rolling his ankle in practice on Wednesday then missing Thursday, but he returned to a limited session on Friday. The Bears said to consider Montgomery a game-time decision. — Justin Bailey
Biggest Mismatch
Both Defensive Lines vs. Opposing Offensive Lines
The Rams' offensive line has been in shambles all season. It ranks second-to-last in pass-blocking efficiency and has given up 20 more hurries than any other NFL team this season.
Why has it been so bad? Well, they had some turnover on the interior, LT Andrew Whitworth is starting to show his age and RT Rob Havenstein has played mediocre at best.
The Rams' OL play has completely stymied their offense as pockets have collapsed on Jared Goff, who falls apart under pressure. He doesn't have the most mobility or strongest arm, so he needs a clean pocket to complete his mechanical throwing motion. When he isn't getting that, the Rams offense turns to slop.
Just take a look at their past five games.
Against three teams that don't get pressure — the Seahawks, Falcons and Bengals — Los Angeles averaged more than 27 offensive points per game. Against two that do — the Steelers and 49ers — the Rams averaged five points, scoring only one offensive touchdown between the two games.
Well, believe it or not, it could actually get worse due to two more injuries to the starting OL. The Rams will have two rookies starting on the right side, including one in his first career start. One guard will also be making his first career start at center. The Rams only recently acquired their left guard from the Browns for a bag of chips who will be making only his second career start. And then the aging Whitworth at left tackle.
Now, you could argue: "How much worse can it get since the starters have been so bad?" And while that's fair, I think we see a decline in productivity in the first game with this new unit dealing with a cluster of injuries. Even if the drop-off isn't significant, the Rams OL will be a mess. And while this Bears defense isn't quite as elite as it was last season, it's still a top-10 unit very capable of generating pressure on Goff.
The Bears also have a very poor offensive line, ranking 25th in adjusted sack rate and 27th in adjusted line yards — a measure of the effectiveness of run blocking, per Football Outsiders. So the Rams defense, which ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate, should get plenty of pressure on Mitch Trubisky and shut down the nonexistent Bears rushing attack that's averaging a sad 3.5 yards per carry (28th in the NFL).
And don't expect either team to have much success running the ball against two top-five run defenses in terms of yards per rush allowed. — Stuckey
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Rams -6
- Projected Total: 40.5
As Stuckey outline, the Rams' offensive line has become a real issue and Goff will see similar pressure from the Bears, who rank fifth in creating pressure at 27.2% of drop backs. Goff has been below-average against pressure this season with a QB Rating of 59.5 (22nd per PFF). He’ll also be without one of his key WRs in Brandin Cooks again.
It’s a common narrative that Goff is better at home. And while that may be true in terms of statistical production, it’s worth noting that he’s 7-13 against the spread at home in his career.
The spread is about right, but this is a matchup between teams that can be very volatile at times. It’s worth snagging the moneyline on the underdog in such spots, which is why I’m putting a small play on Bears ML +240.— Sean Koerner
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PRO System Match
The Rams have been one of the most profitable teams this season, covering the spread in six of their nine games. The same can't be said for the Bears, who are 2-6-1 ATS.
Some bettors may be hesitant to back Chicago given its struggles at the ticket window, but gamblers shouldn’t expect each team to continue their ATS ways.
ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.
Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 172-105-10 (62.0%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,747 following this strategy.
The Bears aren’t expected to win outright, but history suggests they can cover. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Picks
Stuckey: First-Half Under 20.5
In a matchup of two top-five overall defenses in DVOA, I'm rolling with the first-half under of 20.5 in a game I think will be dominated by each defensive front. I prefer the first-half under vs. the fill game in case one team gets a lead and the trailing team has to abandon what I anticipate will be a run-heavy game script.
With these questionable offensive lines and vulnerable quarterbacks, trying to throw from behind could get messy with turnovers.
When these teams met last season in Chicago, the Rams pulled out a 15-6 win. That was the first game their offense started to struggle as Vic Fangio showed the league the script for slowing down the Rams with a six-man defensive front and zone in the back. Sean McVay has struggled to adapt to the NFL's adjustments since (although the poor offensive line play and Goff's contract haven't helped matters to be fair.)
I don't think it will be that ugly, but the first half should be a run-heavy punt fest as both coaches worry about their quarterbacks turning it over in front of porous offensive lines in a critical game for both teams.
Get ready to hear the names Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald all night — let's just hope neither score a touchdown in the first half.
