Tonight's Sunday Night Football matchup features two teams that expected to be Super Bowl contenders but find themselves with major work to do just to earn an NFC playoff berth.
And with an over/under of just 40, Bears vs. Rams isn't exactly supposed to be an explosive, high-scoring affair, which would have been shocking news for an offense led by Sean McVay prior to the start of the season.
In fact, should the total close at the current number, it would mark the lowest Rams over/under in the McVay era.
Seventy-two percent of bettors still think this game lands under the total despite the historically low number.
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When it comes to the spread, 54% of bets are taking Chicago (currently +6), but is that the smart play in this matchup?
Using our NFL Pro Systems, let's look at where the historical value lies for Bears vs. Rams on Sunday Night Football.
Bears vs. Rams Pro System Pick
The majority of bettors have taken the Bears and the points, and they seem to have found the right side of this matchup.
Team ATS Records Pro System
The beauty of this system is its simplicity. Teams that have been poor against-the-spread (ATS) bets actually offer value when playing opponents with good ATS records later in the season.
This makes plenty of real-world sense. The majority of bettors want no part of teams that have burned them throughout the season, especially when those teams are playing opponents with winning ATS records.
Oddsmakers fully understand this bias and will set/shade lines toward the winning opponent in these matchups since they know that's where the action will land.
This then creates free line value for contrarian bettors willing to make the ugly play, resulting in a 62.2% ATS win rate since 2005.
Despite an underwhelming season so far, the Rams are 6-3 ATS, while the Bears are just 3-6 ATS, making Chicago a match for this system.
