Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Bears vs. Texans parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Bears vs. Texans Sunday Night Football parlay built on DraftKings.
Bears vs. Texans Parlay for Sunday Night Football
- Bears Alternate Spread +7.5 (-140)
- D'Andre Swift Anytime TD (+180)
- CJ Stroud Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Under 45.5 (-108)
Full Bears vs. Texans Parlay Odds: +2000 | $10 Bet Wins $200
Bears Alternate Spread +7.5 (-140)
I'm not quite confident enough in the Bears to play their standard +6.5 spread as part of the same game parlay. But it's close. My colleague Nick Giffen took that line as his SNF best bet, and it makes sense as a standalone play. However, I want to get a bit more safety since we're taking some longer shots, and move this line through the key number of seven.
My logic for the Bears spread (besides how it correlates with our later selections) is largely based on positive regression for rookie No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams. He looked better on tape than he did in the box score in Week 1, with some bright spots as well as some key mistakes.
It was always going to take some time for this team to come together, with two first round rookies as key members of the offense (Williams and WR Rome Odunze). So, expect the offense to look better than they did in Week 1. Last year's rookie of the year (and William's Week 2 opponent) CJ Stroud didn't throw a passing touchdown in his debut, either.
On the other side, the Bears defense forced three sacks and three turnovers last week — two of them for touchdowns. It's an infinitely tougher matchup this week against Houston, but they're still a solid unit.
D'Andre Swift Anytime Touchdown (+180)
Our projections don't love this as a standalone play, but it makes a ton of sense combined with the Bears spread pick.
If the Bears are able to keep things reasonably close, Swift should see a lot more than the 10 carries he had last week. It's probably a somewhat better matchup on the ground as well, with Houston allowing two rushing touchdowns last week to the Colts.
More importantly, both Odunze and Keenan Allen are game time decisions for the Bears. If either — or both — were to miss, some of that passing game work would fall to D'Andre Swift. He's always been a talented receiver, and is an excellent check down option for his rookie quarterback.
Of course, that also means we could take Swift's rushing + receiving yards prop. However, an increase in touches and yards is heavily correlated with the chance to score touchdowns, and we get better odds this way.
Looking at that correlation from the other direction, for the Bears to cover the spread here, they probably will need a touchdown from Swift — so it works no matter which way you view the correlation and causation.
CJ Stroud Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Stroud averaged a bit over 11 yards on the ground last season, and picked up 13 yards on four attempts last week. This is the highest rated Texans player prop in our NFL Props Tool this week — and none of that is why I'm betting it.
The reason we're taking it is that DraftKings has completely missed on the correlation here. When paired with the positive Bears selections above, we're getting better odds with Stroud's over (+750) than under (+575) rushing props.
That's despite the over being slightly juiced as a straight bet. The implication is Stroud is more likely to stay under his rushing prop in a game where Chicago performs above expectations — which is probably not the case.
A closer game should lead to more drop backs for Stroud, and thus more chances to scramble. The algorithms (correctly) correlate a closer game with more passing and less running from the favored team, but that doesn't apply to quarterbacks the same way as it would running backs. (With an exception for QBs that see a lot of designed runs such as Anthony Richardson and Lamar Jackson.)
This would be a perfect stopping point for the parlay, with +750 odds. I'll be making a small bet here, before adding one more long shot pick to really boost the odds.
Under 45.5 (-108)
This pick isn't exactly a long shot. It's almost exactly a 50/50 proposition, in fact.
However, since we're adding it to a parlay with two "positive" offensive props, it's bringing the total SGP odds to +2000, while adding the over would only get us to +1500.
While I understand the negative correlation between the player props and the total, I still think this might be backwards when we consider the spread pick. A lower scoring game, by definition, helps the underdog to cover. Particularly when we're taking an alternate line or more than a touchdown.
Think of it this way. To cover a -7.5 line in a game with 30 points, the favorite needs to score around 63% of the game's total points (with 19-11 being the closest possible cover). In a game with 60 points scored, the favorite only needs to score about 57% of the points (34-26.)
That's reason enough to sprinkle on the under to this parlay, bringing the total odds to 20-to-1.
Full Bears vs. Texans Parlay Odds: +2000 | $10 Bet Wins $200
