Editor's note: News that the Vikings will rest Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and more starters since this story was published.
Bears at Vikings Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Vikings -1
- Over/Under: 37
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The Vikings are locked into the No. 6 seed for the NFC, so how much will they play their best players in Sunday's matchup against the Bears? The line has crashed from an opening of -7 to -1 for Minnesota, so is it time to bank on the Vikings or trust Mitchell Trubisky?
Our experts preview the matchup and make their pick.
Bears-Vikings Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Both are banged up
Dalvin Cook (shoulder) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) have returned to limited work, but I’d be surprised if the Vikings play them much since Minnesota is locked into the No. 6 seed for the playoffs.
The Bears are probably a bit more banged up than the Vikings with Taylor Gabriel (concussion), offensive lineman Bobby Massie (ankle) and defensive linemen Akiem Hicks (elbow) and Eddie Goldman (concussion) all on the injury report. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Vikings Safeties vs. Bears Tight Ends
Normally I don’t focus on matchups as inconsequential as this one; the outcome of this game will likely not be determined by how the Vikings safeties handle the Bears tight ends.
But this matchup is just so uneven that I have to talk about it.
The Bears have a subpar passing game: Mitchell Trubisky has regressed in his third season, dropping from a respectable 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt last year to a bottom-feeding 5.9 AY/A this year. And the Bears are dangerously thin at tight end. Starter Trey Burton (calf, IR) is out. Backup Adam Shaheen (foot, IR) is out. Third-stringer Ben Braunecker (concussion, IR) is out.
At the position, the Bears are going with J.P. Holtz and Jesper Horsted. Those sound like like characters in a Mark Twain book.
Holtz is a fourth-year undrafted veteran who opened the season on the Redskins and never played a snap in the NFL until Week 3. And Horsted is an undrafted rookie Ivy League wide receiver who has been pressed into action as a tight end because of all the injuries.
Opposite them are safeties Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith, who are respectively Nos. 1-2 at the position in Pro Football Focus coverage grade. Thanks to their outstanding safety duo, the Vikings are No. 1 against tight ends in pass defense (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
The Vikings have allowed a league-low one touchdown this year to tight ends.
Since the Vikings are locked into the sixth seed, they may not rely too heavily on their starters. That means Harris and Smith could rest some of the game.
But even if that happens, I won’t be too worried about Holtz and Horsted going off. For each guy, this literally might be his last game in the NFL. — Matthew Freedman
Expert Pick
Chris Raybon: Under 37
I feel like my brand has become betting the under on disgustingly low totals. Nevertheless, it’s hard to ignore the likelihood of a disgustingly low-scoring game. On one side, we have a top-10 Bears defense going up against a Vikings offense that will likely hold out Dalvin Cook (shoulder) while limiting key players like Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen. On the other, we a Mitch Trubisky-led offense with a bad offensive line (and expiring tight ends according to Freedman’s blurb) squaring off against a Mike Zimmer defense that shouldn’t be expected to fold at home even if its best players see limited snaps.
According to our Bet Labs data, the Bears under is 22-10 (69%) all-time in Trubisky’s starts when the total is 44 or less, and the Vikings under is 29-18 (62%) all-time at home under Mike Zimmer. This line initially opened at 41.5, but reopened at 37.5 when the prospect of Minnesota resting starters became a more likely reality.
Despite 64% of money on the over at the time of this writing, the line has dropped to 37 at many books with nary a 38 in sight. I’d bet it down to the key number of 37.
Raybon is 188-143-10 (56.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
