Bears vs Vikings Player Props: Alexander Mattison, Justin Fields
I've made two picks for my Bears vs. Vikings props tonight. The first pick was falling fast and I wanted to get it out before it went past a point of "no bet" for me. The second pick was given out on Green Dot Daily on the Action Network YouTube channel.
Check out my two NFL picks for Monday Night Football below.
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Over a month ago, I had mentioned in one of my bets and in our Discord channel that the Bears run defense is very good, mainly due to LB T.J. Edwards. He's excellent at making sure any RB that makes it to the second level doesn’t make it into the open field. As a result, Chicago is allowing a league-low 1.9% explosive run rate.
Mattison is more of a grinder and not known for his explosiveness, but he does sport an 8.1% explosive run rate with six rushes that have gone for 14 or more yards this season. This, though, is going to be a much tougher spot to clear this number.
The sweet spot for this prop is between 8-17. I have about an 80% chance Mattison's longest rush ends up somewhere in that range.
I have his median closer to 12, though, and about a 60% chance he stays under 13.5.
Fields has only cleared this in two of the six full games he’s played in this season.
The Vikings play a ton of Cover 3 and zone coverages, and they blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. That can lead to more high-percentage throws, and QBs tend to complete more passes against them.
But when these two teams met in Week 6, Fields had eight rush attempts to just 10 pass attempts before getting knocked out of the game halfway through the third quarter. I think we can expect him to scramble at a high rate tonight, keeping his pass attempts/completions down.
The Bears are also just +3 tonight and would be a lean for me against the spread. There’s a chance Fields could end up in a rare positive or even neutral game script tonight, which would prevent Chicago from becoming too pass-heavy.
Last week, the Bears’ time of possession was over 40 minutes against the Lions, which allowed them to run 71 plays (Fields still only had 16 completions). I’m expecting Chicago's play volume to be much lower tonight. The Vikings have been more run-heavy with Josh Dobbs under center and have allowed the third-lowest time of possession in his three starts.
I have Fields' median closer to 16.5 with a 60% chance to stay under 17.5.
