We might be nearing the end of the Bill Belichick era as speculation’s swirling the Patriots will move on from their longtime coach after a disastrous season. If this in fact is the end of the line, Patriots fans have only two more chances to root him on at Gillette Stadium.
However, in what perfectly encapsulates how far the Patriots have fallen, they’ll likely kick off Sunday as the biggest underdogs in a home game since Tom Brady’s first season as a starter in 2001. It’s fitting since the Patriots have been a shell of what they used to be since Brady left the franchise after the 2019 season.
It’s also fitting that New England faces Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefsas 8.5-point ‘dogs. The last time the Patriots laid this many points came in the old Foxboro Stadium against the league’s top passers, as well. They were 8.5-point underdogs in 2001 against Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show on Turf, and 11.5-point ‘dogs against Peyton Manning in Brady’s first career start.
New England managed to cover both of those games. They fell 24-17 to the Rams, but blew out the Colts, 44-13. Brady completed 16-of-20 passes for 202 yards and three touchdowns in the upset win. Now, though, Belichick must rely on Bailey Zappe to keep pace with Mahomes, which speaks volumes about how far New England’s fallen.
This is only the 16th game Belichick’s been an underdog at home in his 24-year tenure in New England. He’s 10-14 SU and 13-11 ATS in those games. However, he’s 1-8 SU in the last nine dating back 2021. He’s also 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as a home ‘dog with Mac Jones, who has flamed out as Brady’s successor. Jones was benched in favor of Zappe who completed 19-of-28 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns on his way to a 115.2 passer rating in last week’s win over the Steelers.
Zappe likely needs to improve on those numbers against the heavily favored Chiefs, especially since the Pats have struggled against top-tier opponents ever since Brady departed for Tampa Bay. They’re 14-17-1 ATS against teams above .500. Overall, the Patriots are 28-36 straight up and 27-36-1 against the spread in the post-Brady era.
The quality of opponent hasn’t really mattered this season, though, as New England is 3-10 ATS. That’s tied with the Cardinals for the second-worst record in the league. This is the third time they’ve started 3-10 ATS, previously doing so in 1969 and 1981.
The Patriots have also lost five straight games against the spread heading into Sunday’s showdown with the Chiefs. It’s the first time they’ve failed to cover that many games in a row in the same season since losing six-straight to end the 2007 campaign. Ironically, that’s the year they went undefeated in the regular season.
History isn’t on Belichick’s side in what might be his penultimate home game with the Patriots. He's 1-3 all-time ATS against Mahomes, 4-7 against Andy Reid and 2-5 against the Chiefs.
Who knows, though? Maybe Belichick will give Patriots’ fans one last rousing win in what might be his swan song season. If not, it’ll be a fitting end to what might be an ugly end to a legendary 24-year run.
