Bengals at Steelers Picks
- Bengals Spread: +3.5
- Steelers Spread: -3.5
- Over/Under: 45
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN
The Mason Rudolph-quarterbacked Steelers host the Bengals for an AFC North showdown on Monday Night Football.
Our experts reveal how they're betting the game, complete with an against-the-spread and over/under pick.
Odds as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
John Ewing: Bengals-Steelers Over 45
The Steelers scored 20 points in a Week 3 loss to the 49ers. The Bengals also struggled to get their offense going, managing only 17 points of offense in a loss to the Bills.
Unsurprisingly, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati each went under their Week 3 total. It's natural given their recent offensive struggles that bettors would want to wager on this under. But history says the over has value.
Since 2003, the over is 480-437-12 (52.3%) in games when both teams went under the previous week.
Oddsmakers know recreational gamblers tend to chase results. If both teams went under in their past game, the bookmakers will shade the total to the under anticipating public money.
This strategy works the best early in the season when we can take advantage of bettors putting too much emphasis on a small sample of team performances.
Since 2003, in Weeks 2-4, it's been profitable — to the tune of 110-68-1 (61.8%) — to bet the over when both teams went under the previous week. Despite the Bengals being 25th in points per game and the Steelers being 28th, don't be surprised if the teams go over this total.
Mike Randle: Steelers -3.5
Including the playoffs, the Steelers have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Bengals and own a 62-35 advantage in their regular-season history. Now both teams enter the game at 0-3 and in desperate need of a win.
The Steelers and Bengals have struggled mightily in all phases, ranking in the bottom-third in both offensive and defensive efficiency. However, the biggest mismatch will be Pittsburgh's stout run defense against a Bengals offensive line that ranks last in adjusted line yards per run.
Cincinnati has also allowed the sixth-most sacks through three weeks and faces a Pittsburgh pass rush that ranks top 12 in quarterbacks hits. The Bengals offense will still be without key playmaker A.J. Green (ankle).
The Steelers hope to get running back James Conner on track against a run defense that's allowed 136 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Rudolph should enjoy a comfortable pocket in his first home start as the Bengals' weak pass rush has only totaled six sacks.
Look for Pittsburgh to continue its historical dominance over a Cincinnati team in Year 1 of a rebuild under rookie head coach Zac Taylor.
Matt LaMarca: Joe Mixon Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Bengals have employed a committee backfield this season. Mixon leads the team with 32 carries, but he’s been on the field for just 49% of snaps. Giovani Bernard figures to continue to eat into Mixon's workload after signing a two-year contract extension before the start of the season.
Bernard’s specialty is catching passes out of the backfield, so it’s not surprising that Mixon has struggled as a receiver. He’s managed just 10 targets through three games, and he’s turned seven receptions into just 51 yards. One of his receptions went for 33 yards, so he’s averaged just 3.0 yards on his other six receptions.
Mixon is one of the more talented backs in the league, but this line is high given his involvement through the first three weeks. I’d play the under up to -130.
