Both the Bengals and Bills have been on a tear entering this AFC Divisional Round playoff game. Cincinnati has won its last eight games and Buffalo its last seven.
But while both teams have been hot, they have shown vulnerabilities recently.
For the Bills, protecting the ball has been a problem. They have committed three turnovers in each of their last three games.
For the Bengals, their offensive line is decimated. After spending the offseason upgrading the line, they enter the late stages of the playoffs with undoubtedly the worst line of the remaining teams. The good news is the situation is no worse than last year.
This is an exciting matchup between two AFC juggernauts. The question will be which can overcome their deficiencies.
Let’s build a same game parlay around those weaknesses.
Alternate Game Total
Over 46.5 (-164)
These offenses represent two of the best in the NFL. The Bengals are fifth in points per drive and the Bills are second.
Both feature a wide assortment of playmakers who can bust a big play at any moment. Their weak points also play into a game script that leans to the over.
For the Bills, we saw their turnovers completely turn around the game last week against Miami. From what looked to be a blowout to a high-scoring, close game. Playing with that risk-reward style can lead to game-flipping plays for you or the opponent. Either way, that means more scoring.
The Bengals' offensive line struggles will mean more passing and Joe Burrow under duress. We saw Burrow execute under pressure last year, most notably in the comeback against the Chiefs. This can lead to more risky swing plays.
These teams are two of the best at scoring and will be forced to keep up with one another. Factor in those risky plays and you have a recipe to crush the over.
Joe Mixon Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Tyler Boyd Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
These two don’t seem like they go together, but they were picked for the same reason: The Bengals' offensive line is in bad shape.
Joe Mixon has averaged 38 rushing yards on 12 carries in his last four games. Those stats include Alex Cappa before he got hurt two weeks ago and Jonah Williams' injury last week. Cincinnati will try to run, but Buffalo’s defense is fifth in yards allowed per game. Stout run defense plus weak line spells trouble for Mixon.
Without a run game, Cincinnati will need to run quick-hitting pass plays. We saw this last year in the Super Bowl, when Tyler Boyd snagged five catches for 48 yards. With Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase drawing attention outside, the middle of the field should be open for Boyd.
The Bengals have shown faith in Boyd in several games this year, and don't forget he's eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving twice in his career. The talent is there, but thanks to their dynamic receiving threats outside, they have not needed him.
With a beat-up line and stunted run game, this is perfect the time for the Bengals to utilize their slot receiver to keep the chains moving.
Bengals 2nd Half Spread
+2.5 (+100)
Cincinnati has shined brightly in the second half of games while Buffalo tends to do its best to hold onto victory.
In the first half of games, Buffalo’s offense pops thanks to its passing attack. The Bills' first-half passing rating is 103.1. However, in the second half, that dissipates as the passing rating drops to 87.9.
The Bills will try to utilize this by building a big lead. Then, allow their pass rush to take advantage of the Bengals' offensive line as they try to throw their way back in the game.
Given the Xs and Os, this strategy seems perfect. However, on the other side of the field will be Joe Burrow.
Burrow turns his game up when the moments are the biggest. In the fourth quarter, Burrow has an absurd passer rating of 115.3. This is simply miles ahead of what the Bills do late in games. They get 2.5 points and the odds on this bet are higher than usual.
Trust the Bengals and Burrow to keep with their season-long trend of making big plays when it is needed most.
The Parlay +1049 (odds via FanDuel)
- Alt Total Over 46.5 (-164)
- Joe Mixon Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Tyler Boyd Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Bengals 2nd Half Spread +2.5 (+100)
Kall's SGP: +977 |
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