Browns vs Bengals Odds
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Bengals vs Browns Picks
 | |
Billy Ward: While Mixon is averaging a disappointing 3.4 yards per carry this season, he's had an impressive workload. Coming into the week, he ranks eighth in the NFL in rushing attempts per game at 17.3 carries per game.
While the Bengals had been starting to lean more run-heavy in recent weeks, that was before top wideout Ja'Marr Chase landed on the injured reserve. As long as they're not getting blown out, the Bengals are likely to lean more heavily on Mixon and the run game while without one of the NFL's top receiving weapons.
Bengals -3.5 | Browns +3.5
That'll especially be the case this week when Cincinnati takes on a Browns team that ranks 27th in DVOA against the rush. That's the best matchup Mixon has had all season.
With the Bengals as three-point favorites here, it's likelier than not that the flow of this one allows Mixon to get plenty of touches. The combination of volume and efficiency is a good one, as is the line at FanDuel: it's a few yards lower than can be found elsewhere.
I'd take this one up to 65.5 at -115 or better.
| |
Charlie DiSturco: The Bengals are not shy about getting Mixon the ball. He is a workhorse in the run game and has been a steady hand as a receiver, as well.
With Chase sidelined, there’s less options for Joe Burrow downfield. Chase garnered 27.6% of the Bengals’ targets and now the defensive focus will be shifted toward limiting Tee Higgins.
That should lead to an extra couple of checkdowns for Mixon, who has gone over this number in back-to-back games. He averages five targets and 26 receiving yards per game while Chase is healthy, a number that I expect to inch closer to 30 in his absence.
In Mixon’s lone game against Cleveland last year, he hauled in five passes for 46 yards. In 2020, he caught four for 40.
The Browns defense also surrenders an average of 26 receiving yards per game to running backs. In a coin flip game with a 3.5-point spread, the Bengals could also find themselves in a trailing game script. That should only benefit Mixon.
Our Action Network projections have this number closer to 24 yards, so there’s a bit of value on the over. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding how the Bengals offense will do without their star Chase, but this is the perfect spot to buy low on Mixon, who the Bengals love to involve every way possible.
 | |
Nick Bretwisch: With Chase being sidelined with injury for a couple weeks, Tyler Boyd hype throughout the prop-betting and fantasy industry seems to be gaining a lot of steam. I look at this matchup tonight against the Browns as a potential opportunity to fade that steam and move on the under 61.5 receiving yards.
This is not a large play by any means, but my Adjusted Expected Total Yards Model has a small edge fading Boyd in this spot as it projects him for just 55 yards receiving. The Browns secondary is rather banged up, so I'd prefer to wait to move on this until the inactive report is released. If slot cornerback Greg Newsome is active, I'll move on the under.
The Browns will likely play a lot of man coverage mixed with some Cover 4 zone, and a good bit of five or more pass rushers. Based on Joe Burrow's recent history, this should benefit the X wide receiver (tonight, it will be Higgins), tight end Hayden Hurst and Mixon.
Yes, we have some uncertainty with the receiving core roles tonight without Chase, but if Newsome is active, I'll take a small stance on the under and expect this game to be a bit more sluggish than what we've seen from the Bengals of late.
| |
Ricky Henne: Chase and his 27.7% target share will miss Monday night’s game against the Browns. Enter Boyd, who is primed to pick up the slack.
Boyd would be the top option for several teams, yet his 38 targets rank fourth on the Bengals behind Chase (74), Higgins (44) and Hurst (39). He’s hauled in 27 of the passes thrown his way for a 76.3% catch percentage, which ranks eighth among all wide receivers with at least 20 receptions, according to Pro Football Reference.
Boyd will draw tougher assignments with Chase sidelined. Don’t expect that to stop Burrow from targeting him though, especially after last week’s dominating performance. The Atlanta Falcons had no answer for Boyd, who caught eight of nine passes for 155 yards and a touchdown.
The underlying numbers also suggest the wideout is capable of much more. Football Outsiders ranks him as the number one wide receiver in DVOA and VOA, third in YAR and fourth in DYAR.
The Burrow show should roll on just fine even without Chase, and all signs point to Boyd being a major reason why. Expect Burrow to look his way often against the division rival Browns.
| |
Dylan Wilkerson: The Battle of the Buckeye State, The Scuffle of I-75, Skyline Chili vs. the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
Whatever this interstate battle means to you, there is no doubt that this match-up will have lasting implications in the AFC North. The Bengals looked like they had returned to true form last week against the Falcons, while the Browns lost a close divisional match-up to the Ravens.
The Bengals have a number of offensive weapons at their disposal, but Cincinnati's potential transcends their offense. Defensively, the Bengals are only allowing 1.6 points per drive. In addition to this, Cincy is among the best in the NFL in red -one stoppages and third- and fourth-down stops. Cleveland loves to score with their running backs, however the Bengals have only allowed three rushing touchdowns this season. If the Browns are able to get any momentum going, odds are it will be flipped with a goal line stop.
The Browns turn the ball over on 12% of their possessions and have surrendered over 350 offensive penalty yards. Let's bet on this Cleveland Browns offense to stall hard and often.
